太湖流域建设用地与耕地景观时空演变及驱动力  

Analysis of spatial-temporal evolution and it's driving forces of construction land and cultivated landscape in Taihu Lake Basin

作　　者：王芳[1] 陈芝聪 谢小平[1] WANG Fang,CHEN Zhicong,XIE Xiaoping(School of Geography ＆ Tourism, Qufu Normal University, Rizhao 276826, Chin)

机构地区：[1]曲阜师范大学地理与旅游学院,日照276826

出　　处：《生态学报》2018年第9期3300-3310,共11页Acta Ecologica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41072164)

摘　　要：以2000、2010及2015年的土地利用数据集为数据源,利用格网化、景观梯度、Logistic回归模型及CLUE-S模型研究方法,对太湖流域建设用地与耕地景观时空演变特征及驱动机制进行分析。研究结果表明:2000—2015年间流域内建设用地景观面积增加与耕地景观面积缩减趋势明显,高建设用地景观梯度区主要集中在沪宁线沿途城市地区,并逐渐向周边扩展,尤其是苏州市、无锡市、常州市、上海市以及杭州市周边地区,动态变化程度最为显著,原有大城市中心以及西部和西南部丘陵地区,动态变化幅度相对较小。两种景观类型的变化深受自然环境与社会经济因素的影响,且后者为主要驱动因素。结合CLUE-S模型模拟,不同情境下2030年两种景观类型时空演变存在显著差异,自然发展情景下高景观梯度值区间的建设用地面积最大;生态保护情景下,建设用地增幅明显降低,但耕地仍大幅缩减,多转为生态用地;而耕地保护情景下高景观梯度值区间的耕地面积最大。研究揭示了流域内耕地被建设用地占用过程的空间规律性,从而为太湖流域土地管理决策及城市规划建设提供依据,对解决流域内经济建设与用地矛盾提供一定的借鉴与参考。Based on the land-use satellite image datasets of 2000,2010,and 2015,the grid transformation,landscape gradient,logistic regression model,and CLUE-S model were integrated to analyze the spatial-temporal evolution and driving mechanisms of construction land and cultivated landscape in Taihu Lake Basin. The results showed that the areas of the construction land increased significantly,while the areas of cultivated land decreased in the basin from 2000 to 2015,respectively. The cities and areas along the Shanghai-Nanjing traffic line showed high construction landscape gradient,with construction land gradually expanding to the surrounding areas,especially in the peripheral areas of metropolis. Among them,in Suzhou,Wuxi,Changzhou,Shanghai,and Hangzhou,the areas of construction land and cultivated land changed more prominently. The maximum increase in construction land was 0.92 km^2 per unit area,and the proportion of construction land with high landscape gradient（ 50 〈DI ≤ 100） increased from 3. 02% to 31. 27%. The maximum diminution of the cultivated land was 0. 95 km^2. However,the landscape changes for the center of original metropolis and the western and southwestern hilly areas of the basin keep relatively small. Such changes for both landscape types were deeply influenced by the natural environment and socio-economic factors,and the latter were shown to be the dominant driving forces. According to the CLUE-S model simulation,there were significant differences in the spatial-temporal evolution of both landscapes withdifferent scenarios in 2030. The area of high construction landscape gradient in the natural developmental scenario would be the largest. Under the ecological protection scenario,the increase in construction land would slow down,but the cultivated land would still be reduced significantly,and most of it would be converted to ecological land. However,the area of high cultivated landscape gradient under the situation of cultivated land protection would be the largest. This study revealed spatial

关 键 词：格网化 景观梯度 时空演变 驱动力 CLUE-S模型 太湖流域 

分 类 号：F323.211[经济管理—产业经济]