中国区域嵌入全球价值链的碳排放转移效应研究  

Research on Carbon Emission Transfer Effect of Chinese Regions in the Global Value Chains

作　　者：余丽丽[1] 彭水军[2] Yu Lili;Peng Shuijun

机构地区：[1]上海对外经贸大学国际经贸研究所 [2]厦门大学国际经济与贸易系

出　　处：《统计研究》2018年第4期16-29,共14页Statistical Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目"国际贸易的碳排放区域转移效应评估;形成机理及中国的碳排放责任研究"(71373218);国家社会科学基金重大项目"气候变化与国际贸易问题研究"(13&ZD167);厦门大学人文社会科学创新团队"国际贸易与产业发展"项目(中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金;20720171001)的资助

摘　　要：本文将区域投入产出表嵌入全球投入产出表并构建相应的碳排放账户,利用投入产出模型和结构分解分析方法,试图从价值链渠道、区域(国别)流向、部门结构和影响因素等角度解释我国各区域国内-外贸易的增加值碳排放转移效应。结果表明,国内贸易的增加值碳排放转入主要通过国内价值链实现并且以中间品贸易为主,而国际价值链对于对外贸易增加值碳排放转入的贡献程度更大;国内增加值碳排放转入主要流向沿海地区和中部地区,国外增加值碳排放转入主要流向美国、欧盟、日本等发达经济体;我国加入世界贸易组织后,碳排放强度和增加值系数的下降有助于降低国内-外贸易增加值碳排放转入,而需求结构和需求规模的变动效应则相反。本文结论对于如何协调国内-国际分工、调整国内产业和碳减排布局,有效促进区域间平衡发展和外贸发展方式转型升级具有重要的政策启示。Based on the regional input-output table and world input-output table,this paper constructs a global input-output table embedded with Chinese regions and its corresponding emission accounts. And then it takes advantages of a MRIO model and structural decomposition analysis to examine the value chain channels,destination,sector structure and influence factors of Chinese regions＇ the emissions transfer embodied in value added trade. The results show that the inward-transferred emissions in domestic trade is mainly achieved through the domestic value chain channel,and the intermediate goods trade is the main reason,while the international value chain contributes more to the inward-transferred emissions in foreign trade. The inwardtransferred emissions in domestic trade are mainly transferred to coastal areas and central regions,and the inward-transferred emissions in foreign trade are mainly transferred to the United States,the European Union and Japan. After entering the WTO,carbon emission intensity and the added value coefficient tend to reduce the inward-transferred emissions of most areas,the effect of the demand structure and the demand scale are opposite. Therefore,coordinating domestic and international division of labor,adjusting domestic industry and emission reduction layout can effectively promote balanced development and transformation and upgrading of economic and trade development mode.

关 键 词：全球价值链 国内价值链 增加值碳排放转移 多区域投入产出模型 

分 类 号：F222.33[经济管理—国民经济]