山东某三甲医院2007-2016年入院人数季节因素分析  

Analysis of seasonal factors of the number of hospital admissions from 2007 to 2016 in a tertiary hospital in Shandong province

作　　者：吴鸿鹏[1] 张淑静 Wu Hongpeng;Zhang Shujing(Liaocheng People＇s Hospital, Liaocheng 252000, China;Nanchang University)

机构地区：[1]聊城市人民医院,252000 [2]南昌大学玛丽女王学院

出　　处：《中国医院统计》2018年第2期107-110,共4页Chinese Journal of Hospital Statistics

摘　　要：目的通过对某三甲医院入院人数的季节因素分析,掌握医院年收治入院人数的动态变化和季节性变化规律,为制订工作计划,明确工作重点提供依据。方法采用时间序列法分析2007—2016年年入院人数。采用季节因素分析法,分析2007—2016年入院人数在季度、月份、周内的变化规律。计算各种入院人数季节指数,分析入院人数在时间上的变化规律。结果医院年收治入院人数呈逐年递增的趋势,医院入院人数的季节指数存在着明显的变化。结论医院年收治入院人数呈逐年递增的趋势并具有明显的季节性和周期性变化特点。入院人数季节指数规律对医院有计划地做好各项医疗工作安排具有一定的参考作用。Objective By analyzing the seasonal factors of the number of hospitalized patients in a tertiary hospital, we can find out the dynamic changes and seasonal variation rules of the number of hospitalized patients in the hospital, and provide the basis for making work plan and clarifying the key points of work. Methods Time series analysis was used to analyze the number of hospital admissions from 2007 to 2016. Seasonal variation analysis was used to analyze the changes of the number of hospitalized patients in the quarter, the month and the week from 2007 to 2016. The seasonal index of various hospitalization numbers was calculated, and the change law of the number of hospitalized patients in time was analyzed. Results The number of hospitalized patients in hospital is increasing year by year. There is an obvious change in the seasonal index of the number of hospital admissions. Conclusion The number of hospitalized patients is increasing year by year, and has obvious seasonal and periodic changes. The seasonal index law of the number of hospitalized patients has a certain reference function for the hospital to do a good job in various medical work arrangements.

关 键 词：入院人数 变化趋势 季节指数 时间序列 

分 类 号：R197.3[医药卫生—卫生事业管理]