基于SEM的地下洞室群施工风险因素关联效应研究  

Analysis on the Correlative Effect of Risk Factors in Construction of Underground Caverns

作　　者：袁宏川[1] 杨同斌 YUAN Hongchuan;YANG Tongbin(College of Hydraulic ＆Environmental Engineering, China Three Gorges University, Yichang 443002, Chin)

机构地区：[1]三峡大学水利与环境学院,湖北宜昌443002

出　　处：《人民珠江》2018年第5期58-62,共5页Pearl River

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51379110)

摘　　要：为了厘清地下洞室群施工风险因素间的关联效应,首先,建立包括管理风险、环境风险、施工设备风险、工作人员技能、职业心理健康、不安全行为的6个一级指标及20个二级指标的地下洞室群施工风险因素层次体系;其次,根据风险层次体系设计调查问卷,并对调查问卷结果进行信度及效度检验;然后,将调查问卷确定的风险指标及数据录入AMOS软件,构建施工风险影响因素的结构方程模型,并通过验证性因子分析得到修正模型;最后,运用修正模型进行对地下洞室群施工风险因素关联效应进行分析。结果表明,各风险指标之间为正相关耦合关系,运用该模型可确定洞室群施工风险中的关键风险因素,以此有针对性的加强风险管控,因而能够降低一级风险指标之间的风险耦合度,从而避免事故的发生。In order to clarify the correlation between the construction risk factors of the underground cavern group, firstly, establish the risk factor hierarchy of underground caver group that includes 6 first-level indicators which are management risk, environmental risk,mechanical equipment risk, work experience and skills, occupational mental health, unsafe behavior and 20 secondary indicators. Secondly, the questionnaire is designed according to the risk hierarchy system, and accomplishes the reliability test and validity test of questionnaire. Thirdly, the risk indicators and data identified in the questionnaire are entered into the AMOS software, constructing structural equation model of influencing factors of construction risk, and get the revised model through the confirmatory factor analysis.Lastly, the modified model was used to analyze the correlation effect of the construction risk factors of the underground cavern group.The results show that, there is a positive correlation between the risk indicators, the model can be used to determine the key risk factors in the construction risk of the cavern group, so the management of key risk can be strengthened, which can reduce the risk of coupling between the risk indicators thus avoiding the occurrence of accidents.

关 键 词：地下洞室群 SEM 施工风险 关联效应 因子分析 

分 类 号：TV5[水利工程—水利水电工程]