京津冀生产性服务业与制造业协同发展现状评估  

Evaluation on the synergetic development status between Jing-Jin-Ji's production services and manufacturing services

作　　者：刘亚清[1] 闫洪举 

机构地区：[1]北方工业大学经济学院 [2]华中科技大学经济学院

出　　处：《城市问题》2018年第5期53-61,共9页Urban Problems

基　　金：2018年北京市教委基本科研业务费项目--区域产业结构优化与生态环境协同发展研究

摘　　要：构建了反映生产性服务业与制造业时间、空间互动关系的空间面板数据结构VAR模型和时空脉冲响应函数,借以探究区域产业协同发展现状,并将该模型应用于京津冀13个城市产业协同发展现状的分析中。结果显示,京津冀13个城市间生产性服务业与制造业均未实现协同发展,甚至存在一定的竞争关系;生产性服务业可以带动制造业的发展,而制造业并未有效地拉动生产性服务业的发展。据此认为,加强京津冀城市间产业合理分工与区域内部生产要素共享是实现京津冀产业协同发展的关键。This essay constructs Spatial Panel Structural Vector Auto Regressive Model and Spatial - time Response Model to analyze the spatial interactive effects between producers and manufacturing, so as to research the situation of regional industrial synergetic development. This essay uses this model to study the synergetic development of industry of Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei＇s 13 cities. Results show that producer services and manu- facturing have not achieved synergetic development, or even there existed a certain competitive relationship. Producer services can promote the development of manufacturing, hut manu- facturing cannot stimulate the development of producer services in an effective way. Therefore, the rational division of industrial structure and the sharing of production factors are the key of synergetic development.

关 键 词：产业协同发展 生产性服务业 制造业 空间面板数据结构VAR模型 

分 类 号：F299.272[经济管理—国民经济]