基于对数模糊优先规划法的火灾风险评估（英文）  

Application of logarithmic fuzzy preference programming in fire risk assessment

作　　者：王梦 邱榕[1] WANG Meng;QIU Rong(State Key Laboratory of Fire Science, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026, Chin)

机构地区：[1]中国科学技术大学火灾科学国家重点实验室,合肥230026

出　　处：《火灾科学》2018年第1期1-13,共13页Fire Safety Science

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0801505);国家自然科学基金(51176181);高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金(20133402110010);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(WK2320000033,WK2320000035)

摘　　要：随着城市化进程的推进,每年都有大量的火灾事故发生,造成大量的人员伤亡和财产损失,为了避免事故发生或者减少伤亡损失,火灾风险评估是一种有效的方法之一。基于层次分析法,提出了对数模糊优先规划法进行火灾风险评估。首先以地下车库火灾风险评估为例,参考相关文献和专家意见,建立了地下车库火灾风险评价指标体系;然后利用对数模糊优先规划法计算各个评价指标的权重,然后根据专家打分获得评语集,结果所计算的权重集,可以得到地下车库的火灾风险评估结果为"良好"。最后,进行讨论了火灾风险评估的方法的有效性,并与层次分析法对比,对数模糊优先规划法可以使得决策者更加自信和舒适,并且决策结果更加合理。In China, thousands of fire accidents occur annually in the process of urbanization, which cause numerous life fatalities and severe property losses. Fire risk assessment could be an effective approach to prevent fire accidents or decrease the unfavorable consequence. Based on extent fuzzy analytic hierarchy process（AHP） methodology,logarithmic fuzzy preference programming（LFPP） method is proposed to analyze and evaluate the fire risk. Firstly, referring to the relate literatures and experts＇ opinions and taking underground garage for example, the hierarchy of fire risk assessment is established,which consists of five category criteria： human being,cars,equipment,environment,management. Then,the LFPP method is applied to analyze and calculate the weights of all criteria,and with the help of the weight sets and evaluation sets,the underground garage＇s fire risk level is determined to be ＂good＂. Finally, the validation of the utilized method for fire risk assessment is discussed. Compared to the traditional AHP method,the proposed model based on LFPP method in this work could be more reasonable and reliable.

关 键 词：火灾风险评估 地下车库 对数模糊优先规划 层次分析法 

分 类 号：X915.5[环境科学与工程—安全科学]