中美贸易摩擦与美国政治周期对美元汇率的影响——对传统美元分析框架的再审视  

Impact of China-U.S. Trade Tensions ＆ U.S. Political Cycle on the US Dollar --- A Re-survey of the Traditional Analysis Framework for the US Dollar

作　　者：李一民 李华磊 

机构地区：[1]申万宏源证券研究所

出　　处：《中国货币市场》2018年第5期14-18,共5页China Money

摘　　要：携税改在美国内通过的余威，2018年以来特朗普再度打出新政组合拳，做大基建、放松金融监管、频出贸易保护措施，大力推行美国优先战略。一时间，国际金融市场再起波澜，“特朗普行情”似卷土重来；中美贸易摩擦骤然升温，全球经济前景阴云笼罩。面对复杂的国际形势，如何调整美元汇率的分析框架？美元对其他主要货币汇率各自呈现怎样的走势？面对外部挑战及立足自身战略需要，中国对美贸易政策和人民币汇率政策应如何应对？中美贸易阴霾下商业银行如何加强对外贸企业的支持？在本期中，本刊组织专题，对上述问题作深入探讨，供读者参考。Generally speaking, the exchange rate determination theory works with reference to the purchasing power, the interest rate parity, and the balance of payments theories. However, such an analysis framework does not work well in explaining the recent weakness of the US dollar. The paper points out that the political factors, including the China-US trade war and Trump＇s weak dollar policy aiming to bring back overseas profits, prop up the stock market and ease the trade deficit, will be the key drivers that determine the future of the US dollar. The US dollar is expected to remain relatively weak in the medium term.

关 键 词：中美贸易摩擦 美元汇率 美国政治 元分析 传统美 人民币汇率政策 再审 周期 

分 类 号：F752.712[经济管理—国际贸易]