湖南电网山火告警风险及故障时间间隔分布规律  

Distribution Characteristics of Wildfire Warning Risk and Fault Interval for Hunan Power Grid

作　　者：周特军 陆佳政 吴传平 李波 刘毓 ZHOU Tejun;LU Jiazheng;WU Chuanping;LI Bo;LIU Yu(State Key Laboratory of Disaster Prevention and Reduction for Power Grid Transmission and Distribution Equipment （State Grid Hunan Electric Power Company Limited）, Changsha 410007, China;Disaster Prevention and Reduction Center of State Grid Hunan Electric Power Company Limited, Changsha 410007, China)

机构地区：[1]电网输变电设备防灾减灾国家重点实验室(国网湖南省电力有限公司),湖南省长沙市410007 [2]国网湖南省电力有限公司防灾减灾中心,湖南省长沙市410007

出　　处：《电力系统自动化》2018年第10期135-142,共8页Automation of Electric Power Systems

基　　金：国家重点研发计划资助项目(2016YFC08001);国家电网公司科技项目(5216A016000G)~~

摘　　要：输电线路故障规律的研究对电网的运行维护具有重要的实际意义。首先,利用湖南电网输电线路山火广域监测数据和输电线路故障数据,对输电线路山火告警风险和输电线路故障的时间丛集性特征开展了研究,发现了输电线路山火告警风险的"日告警数—频率"满足幂律关系,验证了包含所有触发因素的输电线路故障"时间间隔—频率"累积概率分布满足指数关系。然后,基于Fano因子和Allan因子发现了输电线路故障时间序列具有自相似性,分析并获得了山火、雷击、冰灾等不同故障原因的输电线路故障"时间间隔—频率"累积概率分布满足分段幂律关系,确定了输电线路故障存在两个时间尺度的动力学过程。最后,得到的研究成果可为输电线路山火告警风险和输电线路故障的预测预报提供理论依据。The research of the fault law for transmission line has great significant in the state grid maintenance.Firstly,according to the widely monitoring data of wildfire warning and fault data of transmission line in Hunan grid,a study has been conducted on the time clustering characteristic of the wildfire warning risk and fault for transmission line of Hunan power grid,which finds that the number of wildfire warnings risk of transmission line per day follows a power law distribution and the probability distribution of the time interval-frequency including all the triggering factors is verified to satisfy the exponential relationship.Then,the self-similarity of faults time sequences for transmission lines is certificated based on the Allan factor and Fano factor.Further analysis shows that the cumulative probability distribution of time interval-frequency for transmission line faults caused by different natural hazards,such as wildfire,lightning,ice disaster,follows a piecewise power law distribution.The dynamical properties with two time scales of transmission line faults are analyzed.Finally,the research results obtained can provide the theoretical reference for the prediction of wildfire warning risk and faults of transmission line.

关 键 词：输电线路 自然灾害 时间间隔 指数分布 幂率分布 重现期 丛集性 

分 类 号：TM75[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]