中国城镇家庭汽油需求弹性估计  

Estimating the elasticities of gasoline demand for urban households in China

作　　者：曹静[1,2] 胡文皓 CAO Jing;HU Wenhao(Department of Economics, School of Economics and Management, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;Hang Lung Center for Real Estate, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China)

机构地区：[1]清华大学经济管理学院经济系,北京100084 [2]清华大学恒隆房地产研究中心,北京100084

出　　处：《清华大学学报（自然科学版）》2018年第5期489-493,共5页Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金优秀青年项目(71422013)

摘　　要：为了鼓励低碳生活和减少机动车带来的空气污染,中国政府需要实施燃油税对汽油的需求进行有效管控。该文使用1992年至2009年中国城镇家庭汽油消费的微观数据,应用Probit和Translog模型测算了城镇家庭汽油需求及其弹性。结果表明：中国城镇家庭的人均总消费支出和人口结构特征对家庭的汽油消费行为均有很大影响。城镇家庭汽油需求弹性估计结果与西方国家家庭的估计结果非常接近,价格弹性为-0.445,而复合收入弹性为1.307。研究表明：开征燃油税可以有效地改变人们驾车与消费燃油的行为,且具有累进性,在减少汽油消费和污染物排放的同时,不会对居民福利产生负面影响。To encourage low-carbon lifestyles and reduce vehicle air pollution,the Chinese government needs to implement effective policy tools to regulate gasoline consumption,such as gasoline taxes.This paper uses the Probit and Translog models to estimate gasoline price and income elasticities using urban household consumption data for 1992—2009. The results show that the household characteristics significant impact the gasoline consumption of urban households in China.The micro-data elasticities results are similar to those in western countries.The gasoline demand price elasticity is-0.445 and the sophisticated income elasticity is 1.307.Thus,a fuel tax can effectively regulate driving behavior as well as gasoline consumption.In addition,these results show that a gasoline tax is also progressive in China that reduces gasoline consumption and pollutant emissions without negative effects on household welfare.

关 键 词：汽油需求 价格弹性 收入弹性 PROBIT模型 Translog模型 

分 类 号：F416.22[经济管理—产业经济]