基于脱钩理论的环渤海地区经济与海洋环境关系研究  

Study on the Relationship between Marine Environment and Economic Growth in Bohai Sea Rim Based on the Decoupling Model

作　　者：曲艳敏[1] 杨翼[1] 陶以军[1] 张健[1] 王晓莉[1] QU Yanmin;YANG Yi;TAO Yijun;ZHANG Jian;WANG Xiaoli(National Marine Data and Information Service, Tianjin 300171, China)

机构地区：[1]国家海洋信息中心

出　　处：《生态经济》2018年第6期174-179,204,共7页Ecological Economy

基　　金：中国海洋发展研究中心重大项目“渤海海洋资源开发和环境问题研究”(AOCZDA201205-1)

摘　　要：文章采用Tapio脱钩模型和脱钩状态判定标准,选取未达清洁海域面积、赤潮发生面积、化学需氧量、无机氮浓度、活性磷酸盐浓度和石油类浓度作为海洋环境压力指标,对2006—2015年环渤海三省一市社会经济与海洋环境压力脱钩状态的时空演变进行了分析。结果表明：（1）从时序变化上来看,从＂十一五＂初期到＂十二五＂后期,受经济发展的影响,社会经济与海洋环境的脱钩状态经历了先下降后回升的变化。（2）从空间对比来看,天津市脱钩状态相对较好,且脱钩状态保持较为稳定;辽宁省、河北省和山东省的未达清洁水平海域面积与赤潮发生面积的脱钩状态并不稳定。（3）从各指标变化来看,污染物浓度脱钩状态有较大改善,但海洋污染面积和赤潮防治形势依然严峻。Based on Tapio decoupling model and decoupling state determination criteria, this paper chose the pollution sea area, red tide area, chemical oxygen demand, inorganic nitrogen concentration, active phosphate concentration and petroleum concentration to construct the marine environmental pressure index, and analyzed the temporal and spatial evolution of the decoupling degrees between the social economy development and marine environment in the Bohai Sea Rim with a time span from 2006 to 2015. From the results of time-series analysis we found that the decoupling degrees between socio-economic and marine environment experienced a process of fall-rise with the impact of socio-economic development from initial stage in 11 th Five-Year plan to late of 12 th Five-Year plan. Spatially, the decoupling degrees of Tianjin were best in this area, and the state still kept stability. By contrast, the decoupling degrees of marine pollution area and red tide area in Liaoning, Hebei and Shandong were not stable. From the point of view of secific index, although the decoupling degrees of pollutant concentration had been greatly improved, there were still many difficulties in prevention and control of the marine pollution and red tide.

关 键 词：环渤海地区 脱钩模型 海洋环境 经济 

分 类 号：X55[环境科学与工程—环境工程]