2015年11月广西秋季连续性暴雨研究  

Study on continuous autumn heavy rain in Guangxi in November 2015

作　　者：黄翠银 赖雨薇 陈剑飞 Huang Cuiyin;Lai Yuwei;Chen Jianfei(Guangxi Climate Center, Nanning Guangxi 530022;Nanning Meteorological Bureau, Nanning Guangxi 530022;Guangxi Meteorological Service Center, Nanning Guangxi 530022)

机构地区：[1]广西区气候中心,广西南宁530022 [2]南宁市气象局,广西南宁530022 [3]广西区气象服务中心,广西南宁530022

出　　处：《气象研究与应用》2018年第1期33-37,45,共6页Journal of Meteorological Research and Application

基　　金：中国气象局预报员专项项目(CMAYBY2016-053)

摘　　要：利用NCEP1×1、2.5×2.5资料以及常规观测资料,采用天气动力学诊断分析方法,对2015年11月7日-13日广西秋季连续性强降雨过程进行分析。结果表明:(1)强降雨前期、后期是两次华北槽引导两次低层切变线和地面冷空气南下造成,强降雨中期则是高原槽东移和切变线北抬南风加大辐合引起;(2)8日由于副高更强切变线只压到桂北,12日副高南退到沿海后切变线南压到桂南,且强度更强,造成的强降雨范围更大;(3)通过位势倾向方程分析发现,槽前的正涡度平流和冷平流随高度减弱使得副高北界出现两次南退;(4)锋生函数和假相当位温能够判断未来锋面走向从而预报强降雨的落区。Using the info rmation of NCEP1 ×1, 2.5 ×2.5 and conventional observation data, a process of continuous heavy rainfall occurred in autumn in Guangxi on 7-13 November 2015 was analyzed. The heavy rainfall in early and late periods was caused by two low-altitude shear lines and cold air; in the middle period, the reason was the east movement of the plateau trough and convergence which was induced by the increasing south wind after a north lift of the shear line. On November 8, the shear line only moved to northern Guangxi due to strong Subtropical High. On 12, the shear line southward to southern Guangxi after the subtropical high retreated to coastal areas, inducing a wider range of heavy rainfall. Through the analysis of potential tendency equation, we found that the two southern retreats occurred in the northern boundary of the subtropical high because of the positive vorticity advection in the front of the trough and a cold advection decreasing with height. The function of frontogenesis and pseudo-equivalent potential temperature can be used to predict the future frontal trend and forecast the falling area of heavy rainfall.

关 键 词：秋季连续性暴雨 副高 锋生函数 

分 类 号：P458.121[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]