中国人口增长的脉冲突变与趋势预测  

Pulse Mutations and Trend Prediction of Population Growth in China

作　　者：桂占吉[1] 桂彬 陈兰荪[1] GUI Zhan-ji;GUI Bin;CHEN Lan-sun(Department of Software Engineering, Hainan College of Software Technology, Qionghai 571400, China;School of Humanity and Law, Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Beijing 100044 China)

机构地区：[1]海南软件职业技术学院软件工程系,海南琼海571400 [2]北京建筑大学文法学院,北京100044

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2018年第10期152-156,共5页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：海南省哲学社会科学规划课题(HNSK(YB)16-87);海南省自然科学基金(117164)

摘　　要：利用中国统计年鉴中1949—2016年有关中国人口的数据，研究了全面二孩政策对中国人口产生的一个脉冲突变，建立了具有脉冲的Richards人口增长模型，并且利用数值模拟方法研究2016年中国人口增长的脉冲突变，并且预测了中国人口的发展趋势和中国人口的峰值．In this paper, using the 1949-2016 data in the China statistical yearbook on population. As a result of the full two-child policy, a sudden change in the population of China was studied. The population growth Richards model with the pulse was established, and the model was used to simulate the pulse mutation of China＇s population growth in 2016 by maple17. The Richards model also predicts trends and spikes in China＇s population.

关 键 词：脉冲突变 人口 增长模型 数值模拟 

分 类 号：C924.2[社会学—人口学]