“供给侧改革”背景下中国内外贸耦合协调发展的动态演化与空间特征  

Spatial Characteristics and Evolution of Coordination and Development of China's Domestic and Foreign Trade under the Background of “Supply Side Reform”

作　　者：程中海[1] 南楠[1] CHENG Zhong-hai;NAN Nan(School of Economics and Management , Shihezi University, Shihezi 832003, Chin)

机构地区：[1]石河子大学经济与管理学院,新疆石河子832003

出　　处：《现代财经（天津财经大学学报）》2018年第6期98-113,共16页Modern Finance and Economics：Journal of Tianjin University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目(13BGJ024)

摘　　要：内外贸市场分离和国内区域经济失衡是制约中国内外贸协调发展的主要因素。基于国内贸易和对外贸易发展关系的理论,运用熵值法测算了1987-2016年中国30个省市的国内贸易和对外贸易综合发展指数,据此利用耦合协调模型评估了中国国内贸易和对外贸易发展的耦合度与协调度,并分析了各地区的时间特征及空间差异。结果表明,中国各省市区国内贸易水平较高而对外贸易发展水平较低的现象具有普遍性;内外贸发展地区失衡严重,沿海沿边省份、直辖市的协调度较高,沿边不沿海省份、内陆东中部省份次之,内陆西部省份最小;内贸和外贸的耦合度及协调度普遍较低,耦合度和协调度没有达到共振状态,新疆、青海、甘肃、宁夏、贵州等地区的内外贸发展存在"伪协调"现象。通过空间自相关检验发现,内外贸发展存在正向空间自相关性。The separation of domestic and foreign trade market and the imbalance of regional e conomy are the main factors that restrict the development of the integration of domestic and foreign trade. Basing on the theory of domestic and foreign trade relations, the paper calculates development index of domestic and foreign trade from 1987-2016 China in 30 provinces using the entropy value method, and evaluates Chinese domestic and foreign trade development coupling degree and coordination degree using coupled coordination model, and analyzes the difference between the time characteristics and spatial regions. The results show that this phenomenon is universal. Domestic trade level is higher than foreign trade; Foreign trade development of different areas is seriously im-balanced. The coordination degree of coastal provinces and municipalities is high, followed by In land frontier provinces, inland Eastern and central provinces, and the inland western provinces are the lowest; domestic and foreign trade of the coupling degree and coordination degree is generally low. The coupling degree and coordination degree does not reach the resonance state. The ＂pseudo coordination＂ phenomenon exists in the domestic and foreign trade development of Xinjiang, Qing hai, Gansu, Ningxia, and Guizhou. Through the spatial autocorrelation test, it is found that there is a positive spatial autocorrelation in the development of domestic and foreign trade. Basing on these conclusions, paper puts forward relevant suggestions in the coordinated development of domestic and foreign trade under the background of ＂supply side reform＂.

关 键 词：国内贸易 对外贸易 协调发展 地区差异 

分 类 号：F740[经济管理—国际贸易]