不同采样方法对细小可燃物含水率预测模型精度的影响  

Effects of different sampling methods on forecast model accuracy of predicting fuels in forests in Pangu forest farm

作　　者：张恒[1,2] 董川成 牛屾[3] 张运林[1] 金森[1] 王玉霞[2] ZHANG Heng;DONG Chuancheng;NIU Shen;ZHANG Yunlin;JIN Sen;WANG Yuxia(College of Forestry, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin 150040, Heilongjiang, China;College of Forestry, Inner Mongolia Agricultural University, Huhhot 010019, Inner Mongolia, China;Tahe Forestry Bureau, Daxianganling 165200, Heilongjiang, China)

机构地区：[1]东北林业大学林学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150040 [2]内蒙古农业大学林学院,内蒙古呼和浩特010019 [3]塔河林业局综合勘察设计大队,黑龙江大兴安岭165200

出　　处：《中南林业科技大学学报》2018年第5期33-39,共7页Journal of Central South University of Forestry & Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(31370656);内蒙古农业大学博士启动资金项目(BJ2013D-7)

摘　　要：为了研究2种不同采样方法对细小可燃物含水率预测模型精度的影响,对2010年春、秋季大兴安岭地区盘古林场樟子松、兴安落叶松、白桦林分下细小可燃物含水率进行连续的观测。结果表明:春季,3种林分破坏性采样和非破坏性采样的平均绝对误差和平均相对误差差异均不显著(P>0.05),而秋季非破坏性采样的平均绝对误差和平均相对误差极显著低于破坏性采样(P<0.01),这表明2种采样方式对预测模型精度有很大的影响;春季2种采样法差异不显著,预测效果相近,而在秋季使用非破坏采样更好。此研究结果对提高我国利用气象要素回归法预测细小可燃物含水率模型精度具有重要的理论意义和实践指导价值。In order to study two different sampling methods of fine fuel moisture content prediction model of the impact of the accuracy of water content in spring and autumn of 2010 in Greater Khingan Range, Xingan, Pangu forest of Pinus sylvestris Larch birch forest under the fine fuel rate of continuous observation. The results show that the spring, 3 types of destructive sampling and non destruction of MAE and MRE were not significant differences in sampling（P 〉0.05）, and the fall of non destructive sampling of MAE and MRE was significantly lower than that of destructive sampling（P〈 0.01）, which indicated that the two kinds of sampling methods on the prediction accuracy of the model was greatly affected by the spring. 2 sampling methods were not significantly different, the prediction effect is similar to that in the autumn to use non destructive sampling better. The results of this study have important theoretical significance and practical guidance value for improving the accuracy of the prediction model for the water content of small fuel in china.

关 键 词：大兴安岭 可燃物含水率 预测模型 精度验证 

分 类 号：S762.2[农业科学—森林保护学]