基于MaxEnt模型的中国构树潜在适生分布研究  

Potential distribution of Broussonetia papyrifera in China based on MaxEnt model

作　　者：吴良[1] 徐正刚[1,2] 张婉 丁一 唐永成 赵运林 WU Liang;XU Zhenggang;ZHANG Wan;DING Yi;TANG Yongcheng;ZHAO Yunlin(Hunan Research Center of Engineering Technology for Utilization of Environmental and Resources Plant,Cantral South University of Forestry and Technology, Changsha 410004, Hunan, China;School of Material and Chemical Engineering, Hunan City University, Yiyang 413000, Hunan, China)

机构地区：[1]中南林业科技大学湖南省环境资源植物开发与利用工程技术研究中心,湖南长沙410004 [2]湖南城市学院材料与化学工程学院,湖南益阳413000

出　　处：《中南林业科技大学学报》2018年第5期40-45,共6页Journal of Central South University of Forestry & Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(31700332);湖南省林业科技计划项目(XKL201731);湖南省科技计划项目(2016TP2007;2016TP1014;2016NK2148)

摘　　要：构树是桑科构树属植物,基于良好的经济价值和生态价值,2015年构树被确定为国家精准扶贫树种,构树扶贫成为国家战略,为了解构树在我国的潜在适生区,采用Maxent生态位模型,结合ArcGIS技术对构树在国内的潜在适生分布区域进行模拟预测。结果表明:(1)预测结果的精度采用ROC曲线法检测,结果显示数据精度为0.935,预测结果极准确,获得了较好的预测结果。(2)模型预测认为构树适生区域面积为307.104万km^2,适生区域占国土面积比例为31.99%;高适生区和极高适生区面积为178.752万km^2,占比为18.62%,长江流域、四川盆地、云贵高原和黄河流域部分地区为高适生区域。(3)降水和温度是影响构树潜在分布的气象要素。构树潜在适生区的研究对了解构树生物学特性具有重要意义,能够为合理制定构树扶贫开发政策提供参考。Broussonetia papyrifera belongs to Moraceae plant, a tall deciduous tree, Broussonetia papyrifera was identified as the national targeted poverty alleviation tree species, poverty alleviation has become the national strategy based on good economic value and ecological value. In order to solve the potential suitable habitat of Broussonetia papyrifera in China, the Maxent niche model and Arc Gis technique were used to simulate the potential suitable distribution area of Broussonetia papyrifera. Using ROC curve analysis of Maxent model forecasting result accuracy of the suitable distribution of Broussonetiapapyrifera. The accuracy of the data is 0.935, and the prediction result is very accurate, good results have been achieved. From the forecast results, The Yangtze River Basin, the Sichuan Basin, the YunnanGuizhou Plateau and the Yellow River Basin are areas of high fitness. The results show that suitable district of Broussonetia papyriferadomain covers an area of 3.071 04 million km2, The proportion of suitable district to land area is 31.99% the high suitable area and the extremely high suitable area accounted for 18.62%. The distribution of rainfall and temperature ispotential meteorological elements of Broussonetia papyrifera. The study of the potential suitable habitat is of great significance to understand the biological characteristics of the tree and can provide a reference for the rational development of the policy of poverty alleviation and development.

关 键 词：构树 适生分布 MaxEnt模型 扶贫 

分 类 号：S717[农业科学—林学] Q948.5[生物学—植物学]