中国粮食生产的区域类型和生产模式演变分析  

Analysis on regional types of grain production and evolution of grain production models in China

作　　者：李政通[1,2,3] 姚成胜 梁龙武[3,4] LI Zhengtong;YAO Chengsheng;LIANG Longwu(, Center of Central China Economic Development Research, Nanchang University, Nanchang 330047, China;School of Economics and Management, Nanchang University, Nanchang 330031, China;Econometric Research Institutions, Nanchang University, Nanchang 330031, China;Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China)

机构地区：[1]南昌大学中国中部经济社会发展研究中心,南昌330047 [2]南昌大学经济管理学院,南昌330031 [3]南昌大学计量经济研究会,南昌330031 [4]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101

出　　处：《地理研究》2018年第5期937-953,共17页Geographical Research

摘　　要：运用粮食生产空间转移系数将中国大陆地区31个省（直辖市、自治区）划分为3种粮食生产区域类型,并揭示其时空演变和集聚特征。在此基础上,概括出6种粮食生产演变模式,并采用面板二值选择模型研究不同演变模式的主要驱动因素。研究表明：（1）粮食生产转入区主要分布在粮食主产区以及西部和北部边疆地区,而粮食生产转出区则主要分布在粮食主销区和产销平衡区;（2）粮食主产区是粮食生产稳步增长型的主要构成,粮食主销区和部分产销平衡区的粮食生产表现为明显衰退演变型;（3）扩大粮食播种面积可以有效促进粮食生产稳步增长并防止粮食生产衰退演变,提高有效灌溉面积对于促进粮食生产稳步增长和防止粮食生产的衰退演变收效甚微,而提高化肥施用量、城镇化和农村居民家庭可支配收入则可以有效防止粮食生产的衰退演变。Affected by both natural and economic factors, China＇s grain production shows a significant feature of fluctuation in different provinces, thus it is vital to study the fluctuation models of grain production and find the main driving factors. Taking the two factors of provincial grain output and its ratio compared with China＇s total grain output into account, the spatial transfer coefficient of grain production （STCGP） is constructed. Using STCGP, this paper divides the 31 provinces in Chinese mainland into three regional types of grain production （RTGP）, including region with grain production transferred out, region with stable grain production and region with grain production transferred in, and discovers the temporal and spatial evolution and aggregation characteristics of the three regional types. Based on these findings, this paper proposes two grain production patterns （steady growth pattern and continual decline pattern）, which could be further divided into six grain production evolution models （GPEM）. Then the panel probit model is employed to reveal the major driving factors of the six GPEMs. The results are as follows： （1） Regions with grain production transferred in are mainly distributed in the major grain production areas and western and northern border provinces in China, while regions with grain production transferred out are mostly main grain- consuming areas and balance areas of grain production ＆ demand. In general, the evolution of grain production shows the characteristics of ＂moving towards north and west＂ and slight aggregation; （2） The major grain production areas present a steady growth pattern, while the main grain-consuming areas and balance areas of grain production ＆ demand prohabit a continual decline pattern, indicating that the pressure of maintaining regional food security have been shifted to the major grain production areas; （3） Expanding grain-sown areas can not only steadily increase grain production but also prevent it from decline; ho

关 键 词：粮食产量 生产模式 区域类型 空间转移系数 面板二值选择模型 中国 

分 类 号：S23[农业科学—农业机械化工程]