不确定性、粘性信息的叠加效应与我国农村消费潜力释放  

The Additive Effect of Uncertainty and Sticky Information on the Release of Rural Potential Consumption in China

作　　者：宋明月[1] 臧旭恒[2] Song Mingyue;Zang Xuheng(School of Economics, Shandong Normal University;Institute of Consumption and Development, Shandong University)

机构地区：[1]山东师范大学经济学院 [2]山东大学消费与发展研究所

出　　处：《经济评论》2018年第3期129-141,共13页Economic Review

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大招标项目"供给侧结构性改革;异质性消费者行为与经济增长内生动力研究"(项目编号:17ZDA038);国家自然科学基金面上项目"异质性消费者的界定;行为度量及供需结构有效匹配研究"(项目编号:71773063);济南市哲学社会科学规划青年项目"农村居民消费潜力释放及济南市的对策研究"(项目编号:JNSK17D01);山东师范大学青年教师科研项目"供给侧结构性改革下山东省农村居民消费潜力释放研究"(项目编号:17SQR003)的资助

摘　　要：我国农村短期内存在非常明显的信息滞后特征与较高的信息更新成本。在考虑持久收入与城镇居民消费观念影响的基础上,本文分析了收入不确定性、粘性信息的叠加效应对农村居民季度消费储蓄行为的影响。采用31省份2013-2016年季度面板数据估计得出农村信息粘性参数为0.85,体现出农村居民短期消费行为呈现高度惯性。采用该估计值修正了衡量短期收入不确定性的指标,并构建了衡量叠加效应的变量,从而估计得出:其他条件不变时,收入不确定性指标降低标准差的幅度后,季度消费支出增加3.79%~4.90%,此时若粘性参数降为0.80,季度消费支出将增加6.87%~7.43%。分区域研究发现西部地区农村叠加效应影响程度较中部、东部地区高。粘性信息下预防性动机挤出的消费支出不可忽略。In consideration of the characteristics of information lags and higher information collecting and updating cost in rural areas,this paper analyzes the additive effect of uncertainty and sticky information on rural consuming and saving behavior on the basis of permanent income and urban consumption attitudes.Using quarterly panel data of 31 provinces from 2013 to 2016,we estimate the information sticky parameter is around 0. 85,which indicates the feature of high consuming behavior path dependence in rural areas.Applying the above-mentioned parameter and subsequently,we amend the short period measurement of income uncertainty,and establish the substitute variables of the additive effect of uncertainty and sticky information. Afterwards,we estimate that the quarterly consumption will increase by 3. 79%-4. 90% if the expected income fluctuation ratio decreases standard deviation difference,and the value will be 6. 64%-7. 43% if the information sticky parameter decreases to 0. 80 at the same time when the other conditions remain unchanged.In the followed regional analysis,we find that the western rural region has the highest additive effect degree than the eastern and the central. Generally speaking,the crowding-out of precautionary motive on consumption under the sticky information should be pay high attention.

关 键 词：不确定性 粘性信息 叠加效应 农村消费潜力 

分 类 号：F323.8[经济管理—产业经济]