1960—2014年祁连山中东段及其附近地区气温时空变化特征  

Spatiotemporal Variation of Air Temperature in the Middle and Eastern Parts of the Qilian Mountains and the Nearby Regions during the Period of 1960-2014

作　　者：付建新[1,2] 曹广超 李玲琴[1,2] 曹生奎 唐仲霞[1,2] 蒋刚 杨晓敏[1,2] 虞敏 袁杰[1,2] 刁二龙 FU Jian-xin;CAO Guang-chao;LI Ling-qin;CAO Sheng-kui;TANG Zhong-xia;JIANG Gang;YANG Xiao-min;YU Min;YUAN Jie;DIAO Er-long(Qinghai Province Key Laboratory of Physical Geography and Environmental Process, Qinghai Normal University, Xining 810008, Qinghai, China;College of Geographical Science, Qinghai Normal University ,Xining 810008, Qinghai , China)

机构地区：[1]青海师范大学青海省自然地理与环境过程重点实验室,青海西宁810008 [2]青海师范大学地理科学学院,青海西宁810008

出　　处：《干旱区研究》2018年第3期549-561,共13页Arid Zone Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41361005);国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC0404304)资助

摘　　要：基于1960—2014年祁连山区中、东段及其附近地区19个气象站点的气温数据,利用线性趋势、相关分析、多项式趋势、5 a滑动平均、R/S分析、Mann-Kendall检验、滑动t检验、Arc GIS方法对其气温的时间变化与空间分布作了详细分析。结果表明：多年平均气温、最高气温与最低气温变化趋势均为波动上升,增长率分别为0.33℃·（10a）^-1、0.27℃·（10a）^-1、0.41℃·（10a）^-1,分别在1991年、1995年、1990年发生突变;季节气温呈上升趋势,尤其冬季气温增幅最大,主要是温室气体的排放与大气中气溶胶含量增多所致;从气温的年代际变化来看,20世纪90年代上升最明显,2000—2014年比1990—1999年的上升趋势有所减缓,但并不能说明全球变暖停滞,因为气温的Hurst指数在0.5＜H＜1之间，表明今后气温的变化趋势与过去变化趋势具有相同的特征；气温整体上表现出西南部气温低，东、北部气温高；多年平均气温南北两侧变化差异明显，北测比南测升温快；最高气温南侧比北侧升温快，最低气温南北相当。In this study,the linear trend,correlation analysis,polynomial trend,5 year moving average,R/S analysis,Mann-Kendall test,sliding t-test and ARCGIS method were used to make a detailed analysis on the temporal variation and spatial distribution of temperature in the Qilian Mountains based on the temperature data from 19 meteorological stations in the middle and eastern parts of the Qilian Mountains and the adjacent regions during the period from 1960 to 2014. The results revealed that the multi-annual mean,maximum and minimum temperatures fluctuated with increase rates of 0. 33 ℃ ·（ 10 a）^-1,0. 27 ℃·（ 10 a）^-1 and 0. 41 ℃ ·（ 10 a）^-1 respectively,and the temperature mutation occurred in 1991,1995 and 1990 respectively. The seasonal temperature was in an increase trend,and its increase rate reached a peak value in winter,which was mainly caused by the emission of greenhouse gases and the increase of atmospheric aerosol content. Interdecadally,the most significant temperature increase occurred in the 1990 s,and the temperature increase trend was slowed down during the period of 2000-2014 compared with that during the period of 1990^-1999. Such trend,however,could not considered that the global warming was stagnated because the Hurst index of temperature was between 0. 5 and 1,and temperature variation trend in the future would be similiar to that in the past. Holistically,the temperature was low in the southwest but high in the east and the north. Difference of the multi-annual mean temperature variation between the north and the south was significant,the multi-annual mean temperature increase in the north was more significant than that in the south,the maximum temperature increase in the south was more obvious than that in the north,and the minimum temperature increase was similiar in both the north and south.

关 键 词：气温 时间序列 空间分布 祁连山 

分 类 号：P423[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]