ICP规格品价格空间统计研究  

Spatial Statistics Research of ICP Products’ Prices

作　　者：张迎春 张桂荣 李青鹤 Zhang Yingchun;Zhang Guirong;Li Qinghe(School of Economics, Qingdao University, Qingdao 266000, China;Center of Shandong Human Resources and Social Security Information, Jinan 250061, China)

机构地区：[1]青岛大学经济学院,山东青岛266000 [2]山东省人力资源社会保障信息中心,济南250061

出　　处：《统计与决策》2018年第10期28-32,共5页Statistics & Decision

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目(17ATJ002);全国统计科学研究项目(2016LY42);山东省重大财经应用研究课题(ZDCJ-2016-14)

摘　　要：全球最大的经济统计活动国际比较项目（简称ICP）,将转变为世界各国的常规统计项目,但其存在一个问题：核心基础数据——商品空间价格指数的编制方法不统一,且现有方法皆移植于时间维度价格指数编制方法,经不起理论与实践的推敲。文章将空间统计方法引入该领域,选择ICP核心产品列表中的部分规格品进行空间属性检验及影响因素识别研究。结果表明：在空间属性判断方面：（1）非市场程度越强的商品,空间属性越弱;（2）普通食品的空间属性强弱受易损程度、变质时间、运输距离的影响较大;（3）存在对空间属性判断影响很大的离群点（特殊地区）。在空间统计模型检验与实证方面：（1）商品的非市场程度对空间统计模型的选择没有显著影响;（2）经济发展水平、消费水平几乎是所有商品的显著影响变量。International Comparison Program（ICP）, the world＇s largest economic statistical activity, is turning into a regular statistical project for countries all over the world. But there remains a problem to be solved, which is that the compilation method of the commodity spatial price index is not uniform in different countries. Moreover, the existing methods are all transplanted from the time dimension price index compilation method, which is unable to stand the test of theory and practice. This paper introduces the spatial statistical method into the field and selects part of products in the list of ICP to test the spatial attributes and identify the influencing factors. The conclusions are as follows： In terms of spatial attribute judgment,（1） the stronger the non-market degree, the weaker the spatial attributes;（2） the spatial properties of the ordinary food are greatly affected by the degree of vulnerability, the time of deterioration and the distance of transportation;（3） there exist outliers（in special areas） on the judgment of spatial attributes. In spatial statistical model testing and empirical evidence,（1） the non-market degree of commodities has no significant influence on the selection of spatial statistical models;（2） the level of economic development and consumption level are almost the significant variables of all commodities.

关 键 词：国际比较项目 空间价格指数 莫兰指数 空间误差模型 空间滞后模型 

分 类 号：F222[经济管理—国民经济]