能源互联网下可再生能源项目规划研究  

Research on Renewable Energy Project Planning Under Energy Internet

作　　者：赵文会[1,2] 李阮[1] 付强[3] ZHAO Wenhui;LI Ruan;FU Qiang(School of Economics and Management, Shanghai University of Electric Power, Shanghai 200090, China;School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 100000, China;Department of Electric Power Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Baoding 071000, Hebei, China)

机构地区：[1]上海电力学院经济与管理学院,上海200090 [2]华北电力大学经济与管理学院,北京100000 [3]华北电力大学电力工程系,保定071000

出　　处：《电网与清洁能源》2018年第2期142-148,156,共8页Power System and Clean Energy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目:基于节能减排的发电权与排污权组合交易模型(71403163);中国博士后科学基金项目:跨省区发电权与排污权组合交易模式选择及其利益分配(2013M540910)~~

摘　　要：考虑了上网电价、可再生能源发电量、碳交易收益的不确定性,基于符合多阶段实物期权理论构建了可再生能源规划模型。结合算例利用蒙特卡洛模拟和神经网络模型进行求解,并与传统的净现值法求解结果进行比对。结果表明,可再生能源规划模型能够反映出项目中存在的不确定性因素,从而对可再生能源项目规划起到科学的指导作用。In this paper,considering the uncertainty of electricity price,renewable energy generation and carbon trading income,a renewable energy planning model is constructed based on the multi-stage real options theory. Based on examples,Monte Carlo simulation and neural network model are used to obtain solutions,which are then compared with the result obtained by the traditional NPV. The results show that the renewable energy planning model proposed in this paper reflects the uncertainties existing in the project,and can help to guide the scientific planning for renewable energy projects.

关 键 词：能源互联网 可再生能源 碳交易 实物期权 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]