朝鲜半岛局势转圜:动因、评估与展望  

The Situation on the Korean Peninsula: Motivation,Assessment and Prospect

作　　者：郑继永[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]复旦大学朝鲜韩国研究中心 [2]上海市朝鲜半岛研究会

出　　处：《现代国际关系》2018年第5期24-32,共9页

基　　金：国家社科基金项目“新形势下朝鲜半岛状况与我国对策研究”(批准号:17BGJ053)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：朝鲜半岛局势近期的重大变化降低了战争预期与风险。从动因来看,朝鲜是首要推动力量,既有“完成”核武力建设、政治决策模式的改变、发展方针的转型等因素,也有对战争预期的忧虑、对经济发展的期待、对韩、美、中认识的改变等因素。韩国的引导与美国对朝政策的调整,以及中国的“稳定器”作用也推动了朝鲜半岛局势变化。在上述合力作用下,朝核问题出现转折性进展,对峙不断消解,朝韩自主处理的原则得到确认,朝鲜半岛博弈格局出现重构。尽管如此,在朝美关系、朝核问题、韩国作用、国内政治、大国合作、战争风险等方面仍存在不确定因素。面对半岛形势重大变化,中国需挖掘中朝传统友好的新价值,赋予其新的时代内容;坚持朝鲜半岛无核化问题不失焦,提供新思路与新路径;加强大国作用,发展大国合作。Recent changes on the Korean peninsula have decreased possibility of war,and DPRK is the primary driving force.There are many factors such as the completion of the construction of nuclear weapons,changes in political decision-making models,the transformation of development guidelines,as well as worries about war expectations and economic development.Changes in the strategic perspective of ROK and the United States have also played an important role.ROK’s leading role and the transformation of the US policy towards DPRK,as well as China’s role as a stabilizer,have also consolidated the stability of the Korean peninsula.While the principle of self-government between the two Koreas has been confirmed,the game environment of the Korean peninsula has been restructured.And the influence of domestic political factors,as well as the corresponding uncertainty,also has an upward trend.Under this circumstance,China must not only tap the new value of traditional friendship between China and DPRK,but also give it a new era’s meaning.China must not only provide new ideas and new paths on the DPRK issue,but also ensure that the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula does not lose the focus,propose innovative plans and road maps,strengthen the role of big powers,and develop cooperation among big countries.

关 键 词：朝鲜半岛局势 中国外交 中朝关系 朝韩关系 朝美关系 

分 类 号：D731.2[政治法律—政治学]