顾及数据新鲜度函数Knothe的开采沉陷最优组合预测模型及应用  

Research on Optimal Combination Model of Mining Subsidence Considering Data Freshness Function Knothe and Its Application

作　　者：池深深 王磊 李楠 魏涛 韩文权 CHI Shenshen;WANG Lei;LI Nan;WEI Tao;HAN Wenquan(School of Geomaties, Anhui University of Science and Technology, Huainan 232001, China;Chongqing Institute of Geological Environment Monitoring, Chongqing 400015, China)

机构地区：[1]安徽理工大学测绘学院,安徽淮南232001 [2]重庆市地质环境监测总站,重庆400015

出　　处：《煤矿安全》2018年第5期230-234,共5页Safety in Coal Mines

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(41602357);安徽高校自然科学研究资助项目(KJ2016A190);重庆市国土房管科技计划资助项目(KJ-2017017)

摘　　要：针对传统组合预测模型对开采沉陷动态预测适应性差、组合权求解未顾及实测数据新鲜度的影响且求解效率低的缺点,通过实测分析和理论建模方式,研究了顾及数据新鲜度的开采沉陷组合预测模型,依据稳定性好、预测精度高、互补性好原则,该组合模型选取了GM(1,1)、三次指数平滑法、AR三元单体模型,引入顾及开采沉陷数据新鲜度的Knothe函数,基于误差平方和最小准则,构建了顾及数据新鲜度函数Knothe的开采沉陷最优组合预测模型,并提出了模型组合权求解的GA-NP算法(遗传算法-非线性规划算法)。工程应用表明,建立的新鲜度最优组合预测比未顾及观测值新鲜度的最优组合预测模型、方差倒数法组合预测模型、等权组合预测模型以及各单一预测模型,在精度、可靠性方面具有明显的优势。In view of the poor adaptability of the traditional combination forecasting model to the dynamic prediction of mining subsidence, and the solution of combination weight does not take into account the influence of the freshness of the measured data and the low efficiency of the solution. Through the method of measurement analysis and theoretical modeling, the combination of data freshness prediction model is studied. The main conclusions are as follows： according to the principle of good stability, high prediction precision and good complementarity, the combined model selected GM（1, 1）, cubic exponential smoothing model and AR model as a single model. Introducing the freshness function Knothe, based on the minimum square error criterion, the optimal combination prediction model for mining subsidence is constructed for the first time considering the data freshness function Knothe. The genetic algorithm-nonlinear programming algorithm is used to obtain the weight of combined forecasting model.Experiments show that the freshness of optimal combinative forecasting model has obvious advantages in accuracy and reliability than the observation value of the freshness of the optimal combinative forecasting model which did not take into account, the combined model based on the variance reciprocal method, equal weight combined forecast model and the single prediction model.

关 键 词：最优组合预测 数据新鲜度 遗传算法 非线性规划算法 开采沉陷 

分 类 号：TD327[矿业工程—矿井建设]