新疆经济周期波动冲击根源识别——基于DSGE模型  

Analysis of the Impact Identification of Xinjiang's Business Cycle:Based on the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model

作　　者：张学斐[1] Zhang Xuefei(Urumqi Central Sub- branch, the People＇s Bank of Chin)

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行乌鲁木齐中心支行

出　　处：《金融发展评论》2018年第1期30-39,共10页Financial Development Review

摘　　要：本文运用DSGE模型分析区域经济周期波动的冲击识别问题。以新疆为例,发现:货币政策冲击、需求冲击和供给冲击对新疆经济周期波动的贡献依次递减,三者分别解释新疆经济周期波动的66.01%、20.49%、12.85%。由于货币政策通常作为政府调控总需求的重要手段,因而新疆经济周期波动有86.5%来自于需求侧的冲击,12.85%的波动来自于供给则冲击。In this paper, the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model（DSGE） is used to analyze the impact identification of regional economic cycles. Based on the analysis of xinjiang, we drawn the following conclusions： The contribution of monetary policy, demand-side impact and supply-side impact to Xinjiang＇s business cycle fluctuation can be listed in the descending order, namely 66. 01 percent, 20.49 percent and 12. 85 percent respectively. As government often use the monetary policy to control the aggregate demand, the demand-side impact has contributed to 86. 5 percent of Xinjiang＇s business cycle fluctuation while the supply-side impact contributed to 12. 85 percent.

关 键 词：区域经济 周期波动 DSGE模型 

分 类 号：F124.8[经济管理—世界经济]