油砂开发经济性评价方法研究及应用  

An Economic Evaluation Method for Oil Sands Development and Its Application

作　　者：郭瑞[1,2] 罗东坤 郭义远[3] 王晓宇 刘键烨[1] GUO Rui;LUO Dong-kun;GUO Yi-yuan;WANG Xiao-yu;LIU Jian-ye(School of Business Administration, China University of Petroleum, Beijing 10224-9, China;Research Institute of CNOOC, Beijing 100028, China;China petroleum engineering construction co. , LTD, Beijing 100101, China)

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学(北京)工商管理学院,北京102249 [2]中海油研究总院,北京100028 [3]中国石油工程建设有限责任公司,北京100101

出　　处：《运筹与管理》2018年第5期168-176,共9页Operations Research and Management Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目"基于中国石油安全视角的海外油气资源接替战略研究"(11&ZD164);国家科技支撑项目(2014BAC01B02)

摘　　要：随着我国油企进入加拿大油砂行业,如何降低油砂开发项目的风险并提高决策的科学性变得愈发重要。油砂开采的经济性作为投资决策的重要着力点,研究相应的经济评价方法也就有了十分重要的意义。本文较为全面的分析了露天开发油砂及蒸汽辅助重力卸油技术(SAGD)开发油砂的技术特点;选择折现现金流理论作为理论基础分别构建了露天开发与SAGD开发油砂项目经济评价模型,并对模型中涉及的收入、投资、成本等参数的估算方法进行了系统的研究;通过对新疆某油砂试采区的实际评价,验证了方法的可行性。该方法作为油砂开发项目经济评价的初步探索,将为加拿大和我国油砂开发项目的经济评价工作提供一定的参考依据。With the continuous development of China＇s oil companies in Canada＇s oil sands,how to reduce the risk of oil sands development project and how to improve the scientific decision-making has become increasingly important. As an important focus of investment decisions,the research on corresponding economic evaluation methods of oil sands has very important meanings. This paper comprehensively analyzes the technical features of mining development of oil sands and Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage（ SAGD） of oil sands. We select the discount cash flow theory as the theoretical basis and build the mining development and SAGD development economic evaluation model respectively,and meanwhile study parameters estimation method involved in the model systematically,such as income,investment and cost. Through the actual evaluation for certain oil sands test area of Xinjiang,the feasibility of the method is validated. As a desk study of economic evaluation for oil sands development project,the method could provide certain reference basis for economic evaluation for oil sands development in Canada and China.

关 键 词：油砂 露天开发 SAGD开发 经济评价 

分 类 号：F062.4[经济管理—政治经济学]