货币化率的直接测算及土地与住房的货币化——中国经济改革中的货币化进程再思考  

The Direct Calculation of Monetization Rate & the Monetization of Land and Housing: A Reconsideration of the Monetization Process in China during the Economic Reform

作　　者：刘建丰 许志伟[1] 潘英丽[1] Liu Jianfeng;Xu Zhiwei;Pan Yingli(Antai College of Economics ＆ Management, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200030, Chin)

机构地区：[1]上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院,上海200030

出　　处：《财经研究》2018年第6期31-49,共19页Journal of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目(71403166);上海市哲学社会科学项目(2014EJL001)

摘　　要：值改革开放四十周年之际,作为我国经济发展的一条重要主线,对Yi(1991)提出的"中国经济改革过程中的货币化进程"问题进行再考察,较科学地测算我国改革开放初期的货币化率,并对现阶段仍存在的"M2消失之谜"进行更深入的研究,是非常有必要的。前者有利于总结我国过去货币化进程的经验教训,对正处在狭义货币化进程中的亚非拉"一带一路"沿线发展中国家具有较强的借鉴意义;后者则有助于理解我国当前的货币创造、货币政策以及资源"脱实向虚"的重要原因。如果学术界不能为我国货币化率测算的核心难题提供一个较准确清晰的答案,那么就很难给上述国家现阶段的货币化进程提供实质性建议。为此,文章初步解决了货币化率直接测算遗留的难题,并分析了"M2消失之谜"的形成原因及其对实体经济的影响。理论测算表明,我国的货币化率在1952年和1978年分别约为31.7%和42.0%,到1993年基本达到100%;货币化率的年均增速则可分为三个阶段:1952-1960年为4.7%-6.1%,1961-1977年为-0.7%-1.2%,1978-1992年为6.0%-6.7%。文章还发现,剔除狭义货币化因素后,我国M2的平均流速仍在逐年下降,说明现阶段我国经济的"货币流速下降之谜"和"高货币化之谜"并未消失,实证分析表明土地与住房的商品化和货币化可能是一个新的重要因素。经济危机后,我国过多的金融资源流向了房地产市场,这暗示土地与住房的过度货币化可能对实体经济造成了伤害。The monetization process in China during the economic reform in the past 40 years can be roughly divided into two phases. The first half is from the beginning of the reform and opening-up in 1978 to the early 90 s of last century,focusing on products marketization and commodities monetization. The second half is from the late 90 s of last century until now,including the establishment and development of the stock market,as well as the commercialization and monetization of land and housing. On the occasion of the 40 th anniversary of China’s reform and opening-up,reconsidering the issue of ＂monetization process＂ raised by Yi（1991）,as an important main line that accompanies China’s economic growth and development,is very meaningful. Actually,for us,there are still two important issues worth exploring. The first is to scientifically calculate the proportion of monetized economy at the first phase of this process. And the second is to conduct a more in-depth study on the ＂M2 missing puzzle＂ that exists at the current period. Obviously,the former can contribute to summarizing the experience and lessons of China’s past monetization,and providing a strong practical reference for current narrow monetization process of the Asian,African and Latin American developing countries along the ＂OBOR＂. The latter can help to understand China’s current monetary creation,monetary policy,and the important reasons for leading those resources to ＂be shifted to virtual economy from real economy＂. However,if we cannot provide a more accurate and clear answer to the core question,namely how to measure and calculate China’s monetization rate,then it will be very difficult for us to give any substantive advice on the monetization process in these developing countries. Therefore,for the former’s remaining problem,by considering those factors such as generalized trading technology,structural mutation and underground economy,this paper improves the monetization theory of Yi（1991） and creatively proposes a new

关 键 词：货币化率 货币流速 货币消失之谜 土地与住房的过度货币化 地下经济 

分 类 号：F820[经济管理—财政学] F822