AERMOD预测中网格划分与地形数据的优化配置研究  

Research on Optimal Allocation of Predictive Mesh and Terrain Data Resolution in AERMOD Model Prediction

作　　者：付正旭 仝纪龙[1] 潘峰[1] 关勖 FU Zhengxu;TONG Jilong;PAN Feng;GUAN Xu(College of Atmospheric Science, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, Chin)

机构地区：[1]兰州大学大气科学学院,甘肃兰州730000

出　　处：《环境科学与技术》2018年第5期182-186,共5页Environmental Science & Technology

基　　金：国家杰出青年科学基金项目资助(41225018)

摘　　要：为研究不同分辨率的地形数据和预测网格对AERMOD模式预测结果的影响。文章以某热电联产项目为例,运用AERMOD模式,在模式其他参数设置不变的情况下,通过改变地形数据和预测网格分辨率,设计2组预测情景(A1~A5和B1~B5),对预测区域内的最大落地浓度进行对比分析。结果表明:在预测网格分辨率相同的情况下,选用分辨率越大的地形数据,最后的区域最大落地浓度预测结果越大,随着预测网格分辨率的不断减小,地形数据分辨率的不同所带来的预测结果差异性越来越小。30 m分辨率的地形数据与分辨率<100 m的预测网格配置最优。90 m分辨率的地形数据与分辨率<150 m的预测网格配置最优。选择的预测网格分辨率不能与选取的地形数据分辨率相差太大,以免造成预测结果失真。因此,在选用AERMOD模式预测大气污染物扩散过程中要充分考虑到地形数据分辨率与预测网格分辨率的最优配置问题,从而使最终的预测结果更加精确、更贴近实际。In order to study the effect of different resolution of terrain data and prediction grid on AERMOD model prediction results, this paper takes a CHP heating systems as an example, using AERMOD model, the other parameters of the model are set unchanged, by changing the terrain data and predicting grid resolution, two sets of prediction scenarios（A1~A5 and B1~B5） were designed, and the maximum ground concentration in the prediction area was compared and analyzed. The results indicated that in the case of the same grid resolution, if the terrain data with higher resolution is selected, the final forecast result of the maximum ground concentration is larger, and with the decreasing of the forecast grid resolution, the difference of the forecast results caused by the difference of terrain data is getting smaller and smaller. The topographic data of 30 m resolution and the prediction grid configuration with resolution less than 100 m are optimal. The topographic data of 90 m resolution and the prediction grid configuration with resolution less than 150 m are optimal. In order to avoid predicting distortion, the forecast grid resolution can’t be much different from the terrain data resolution. Therefore, in the process of AERMOD model prediction, the optimal collocation of the terrain data resolution and the forecast grid resolution should be fully taken into account, this makes the final prediction more precise and practical.

关 键 词：大气预测 SO2 地形数据分辨率 预测网格分辨率 

分 类 号：X820.3[环境科学与工程—环境工程]