中国对外投资的市场粘性及动态平衡分析  

Market Stickiness and Dynamic Balance Analysis of China′s Outward Foreign Direct Investment

作　　者：姚树洁[1,2,3] 张帆 王攀[4] 欧璟华 YaoShujie;Zhang Fan;Wang Pan;Ou Jinghua(School of Economics and Business Administration, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400045, China;University of Nottingham Ningbo, Ningbo 315100, China;Agricultural Bank of China, Zhejiang Branch, Hangzhou 310000, China)

机构地区：[1]重庆大学经济与工商管理学院,400045 [2]华南农业大学 [3]宁波诺丁汉大学 [4]中国农业银行浙江省支行,310000

出　　处：《南开经济研究》2018年第2期110-129,共20页Nankai Economic Studies

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71673033); 教育部人文社科基金(16YJA790059); 中央高校建设基金(2017CDJSK)的支持.

摘　　要：中国对外投资(OFDI)的历史比较短,大规模投资是从2004年以后开始的。中国吸引外资(IFDI)的历史可以追朔到上世纪80年代。中国企业走出去最大的障碍是对国外的文化、法律、历史和政治不够熟悉。然而,数十年吸引外资的经验在一定程度上可以弥补这一方面的空白。因此,我国海外投资必然与吸引外资有着密切的联系,我们把这种关系称为市场粘性,也就是说,中国企业在其它条件不变的情况下更容易到中国人熟悉的国家去投资。本文利用2003—2009年期间中国对172个东道国的直接投资(OFDI)面板数据,构建一个OFDI与中国吸引外资(IFDI)的动态平衡关系模型去证明这一市场粘性的存在。实证结果表明,中国对外直接投资存在巨大调整成本。中国现有的对外直接投资存量可以逐步向长期均衡水平调整,不仅比实际存量更大,而且波动也更大。我们发现滞后的外商直接投资(IFDI)和同期的对外直接投资之间存在显著的正向关系,验证我国OFDI存在明显的市场粘性。Compared to inward foreign direct investment, outward foreign direct investment（OFDI）from China is a relatively new phenomenon. However,the volume of China′s OFDI increased rapidly from 2004. There has been an increasing amount of literature on the motivations of China′s OFDI,but few studies have focused on its location determinants. The present paper aims to fill this gap in the literature by focusing on two important location factors,natural resources and technology,which are the most important determinants of China′s OFDI.We use a large panel dataset comprising 172 countries over the period 2003–2009 and the Tobit as well as the Heckman models to establish the relationship between the two location factors and China′s OFDI. The empirical results suggest that although China′s OFDI has been driven by the country′s desire for a secure supply of natural resources and to attain advanced technology from the developed world,China′s technology is also a critical attraction for the host developing economies.

关 键 词：外商直接投资 对外投资 市场粘性 中国 

分 类 号：F125[经济管理—世界经济]