多变量灰色马尔科夫模型在建筑物沉降预测中的应用  

Application of a Multivariable Grey-Markov Model to Settlement Prediction of Buildings

作　　者：李志伟[1] 李克昭[1,2] 赵磊杰 王云凯 LI Zhiwei;LI Kezhao;ZHAOLeijie;WANG Yunkai(School of Surveying and Landing Information Engineering, Henan Polytechnic University, Jiaozuo 454000, China;Collaborative Innovation Center of BDS Research Application, Zhengzhou 450052, China)

机构地区：[1]河南理工大学测绘与国土信息工程学院,河南焦作454000 [2]北斗导航应用技术协同创新中心,河南郑州450052

出　　处：《测绘地理信息》2018年第3期36-40,共5页Journal of Geomatics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(41202245,41272373);河南理工大学骨干教师资助项目(72105/090)

摘　　要：将灰色MGM（1,n）模型和马尔科夫理论有机结合,构建了多变量灰色马尔科夫预测模型。以某建筑物的沉降实测数据为基础,进行了灰色GM（1,1）、MGM（1,n）和新模型的预测结果计算比较。结果表明,新模型的预测精度优于灰色GM（1,1）和MGM（1,n）模型,新模型使预测结果更加准确、可靠,具有实际的参考价值。Markov model can reduce the fluctuation of forecasted data and improve the stability of forecasted model.In this paper,combining the grey MGM（1,n）model and Markov theory,we esteblish the multivariable grey-Markov forecasting model.On the basis of practical building data,we compare the forecasting results calculated by grey GM（1,1）model,MGM（1,n）model and the model of our proposed.Result shows that the forecasting accuracy of the model of our proposed is better than that of GM（1,1）model and MGM（1,n）model,and it can make the predicted result more reliable and accurate,which has practical reference value.

关 键 词：多变量灰色模型 马尔科夫理论 沉降监测 沉降预测 

分 类 号：P221[天文地球—大地测量学与测量工程] P207[天文地球—测绘科学与技术]