Twentieth-century Pacific Decadal Oscillation simulated by CMIP5 coupled models  

作　　者：WANG Tao MIAO Jia-Peng WANG Tao;MIAO Jia-Peng(Nansen-Zhu International Research Center, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences;Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology;College of Earth Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)

机构地区：[1]aNansen-Zhu International Research Center, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China [2]Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China [3]College of Earth Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

出　　处：《Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters》2018年第1期94-101,共8页大气和海洋科学快报（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the National Key R&D Program of China[grant number 2017YFA0603802];the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant numbers 41661144005,41320104007,and 41575086];the CAS-PKU(Chinese Academy of Sciences-Peking University) Joint Research Program

摘　　要：The authors examine the spatial and temporal characteristics of the simulated Pacific Decadal Oscillation （PDO） in 109 historical （i.e. all forcings） simulations derived from 25 coupled models within CMIPS. Compared with observations, most simulations successfully simulate the observed PDO pattern and its teleconnections to the SSTs in the tropical and southern Pacific. BNU-ESM, CanESM2, CCSM4, CESM 1 -FASTCHEM, FGOALS-g2, GFDL CM3, MIROCS, and NorESM 1 -M show better performance. Compared with the temporal phases of the observed PDO in the twentieth century, only five simulations -- from CNRM^CMS, CSIRO Mk3o6.0, HadCM3, and IPSL-CMSA-LR -- simulate an evolution of the PDO similar to that derived from observation, which suggests that current coupled models can barely reproduce the observed phase shifting of the PDO. To capture characteristics of the observed PDO in the twentieth century, a requirement is that all the relevant external forcings are included in the models. How to add realistic oceanic initial states into the model may be another key point.太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)是影响亚洲—太平洋气候,乃至全球气候变化非常重要的海洋模态之一。目前为止,有关PDO形成的动力根源及机制仍不清楚。本文聚焦20世纪PDO的空间模态和时间序列演变,系统分析了CMIP5框架下25个耦合模式开展的109个历史时期模拟试验的结果。结果显示,大多数耦合模式可以成功模拟出20世纪PDO"马蹄形"海表温度距平,其中BNUESM,CanESM2,CCSM4,CESM1-FASTCHEM,GFDL CM3,MIROC5,NorESM1-M等模式和中国科学院大气物理研究所的FGOALS-g2模拟的PDO太平洋海表温度遥相关型空间分布与观测相似度较高;耦合模式模拟的PDO时间序列与观测相差较大,表明现有的耦合模式几乎不能模拟出20世纪PDO的位相演变特征。

关 键 词：Pacific Decadal Oscillation CMIPS twentieth century coupled model 

分 类 号：P732[天文地球—海洋科学]