一种基于证据推理的装备保障资源评估方法  

An evaluation method of equipment support resources based on evidential reasoning

作　　者：周志杰 刘涛源 李方志 赵福均 胡冠宇[3] 于传强 ZHOU Zhi-jie;LIU Tao-yuan;LI Fang-zhi;ZHAO Fu-jun;HU Guan-yu;YU Chuan-qiang(Department of Control Engineering, Rocket Force University of Engineering, Xi＇an 710025, China;Troops of No.96602, Beijing 102488, China;College of Information Science and Technology, Hainan Normal University, Haikou 570100, China;Department of Launch Engineering, Rocket Force University of Engineering, Xi＇an 710025, China)

机构地区：[1]火箭军工程大学控制工程系 [2]96602部队 [3]海南师范大学信息科学技术学院 [4]火箭军工程大学发射工程系

出　　处：《控制与决策》2018年第6期1048-1054,共7页Control and Decision

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(61370031;60736026);中国博士后科学基金面上项目(2015M570847;2016T90938);陕西省自然科学基金项目(2015JM6354);装备预研基金项目(9140C890204KG11001)

摘　　要：为解决目前多属性决策分析在处理不确定性问题上存在的不足,提出一种基于证据推理的装备保障资源评估方法,该方法通过融合多种不确定信息得到装备保障资源水平.首先,构建装备保障资源评估指标体系,根据专家知识获取指标权重;然后,基于规则的输入信息转化法,将指标数据转换到统一的置信框架下,并建立基于证据推理的评估模型.针对模型参数难以精确主观确定的困难,建立非线性优化模型,基于投影协方差矩阵自适应进化策略算法求解得到最优参数.对某单位装备保障资源实例进行评估,并通过对比分析验证所提出方法的有效性.In order to solve the shortcomings of the current multi-attribute decision-making analysis in dealing with the uncertainty, this paper proposes an evaluation method of equipment support resources based on evidential reasoning. To obtain the evaluation level, various types of information under uncertainty is integrated. Firstly, the evaluation index system of equipment support resources is established and the weights are obtained from expert knowledge. Then, the data of index is transformed into an unified belief framework using the rule-based transformation techniques, and the evaluation model is developed based on evidential reasoning. Aiming at the difficulty of subjective determination of model parameters, a nonlinear optimization model is proposed and the optimal parameters are obtained based on the projection covariance matrix adaptation evolution strategy. A practical evaluation and comparative analysis example of a unit＇s equipment support resources are studied to validate the effectiveness of the proposed evaluation method.

关 键 词：装备保障资源 证据推理 评估 指标体系 参数优化 

分 类 号：TP181[自动化与计算机技术—控制理论与控制工程]