FDI、交通运输能力与制造业发展:基于224个城市的面板门槛模型的实证分析  

FDI,Transportation Capacity and Manufacturing Development: Based on Empirical Analysis of Panel Threshold Model of 224 Cities

作　　者：陈海波[1] 陈赤平[1] 

机构地区：[1]湘潭大学商学院

出　　处：《世界经济研究》2018年第6期123-134,共12页World Economy Studies

基　　金：湖南省教育厅重点项目"生产性服务业与制造业融合发展的测度比较及其影响因素分析"(项目编号:17A105)资助

摘　　要：城市交通运输能力是促进FDI流入的重要基础,也是加速FDI推动制造业发展的重要条件,在不同的城市交通运输能力下FDI对制造业发展的影响是否存在差异?文章以交通运输能力为门槛,利用2006~2013年中国224个城市构建面板门槛模型,结果发现:FDI对当地制造业发展存在先负后正的"U型"影响,当城市交通运输能力低于低门槛值(0.215)时,FDI对制造业发展具有显著的抑制作用,而当交通运输能力高于高门槛值(0.720)时,FDI对制造业发展表现为显著的促进作用。从异质性角度看,在城市公路运输能力门槛条件下,FDI对制造业发展的影响存在显著的"N"型特征;而在铁路和水路运输能力门槛条件下,FDI对城市制造业发展则表现为"U"型影响;航空运输能力对FDI影响制造业发展不存在门槛效应。因此,各城市要积极完善水陆空各大交通运输体系,提升制造业对FDI的吸收能力,促进制造业发展和升级。Urban transportation capacity is an important foundation to promote FDI inflow,and also an important condition to accelerate FDI to promote the development of manufacturing industry. Are there any differences in the impact of FDI on manufacturing under different urban transportation capacity? This paper constructs a panel threshold model using 224 cities of China from 2006 to 2013 by taking the transportation capacity as the threshold. The results show that there is " U-shaped" impact of FDI on the development of local manufacturing industry with the presence of first positive and negative. when the urban transportation capacity is lower than the low threshold( 0. 215),FDI has a significant inhibitory effect on the development of manufacturing industry.When the urban transportation capacity is higher than the maximum threshold( 0. 720),FDI has a significant positive effect on the development of manufacturing industry. From the perspective of heterogeneity,under the threshold of urban road transport capacity,the impact of FDI on the development of manufacturing industry has a significant " N-shaped" effect. But under the threshold of railway and waterway transport capacity,FDI has a " U-shaped" effect. And the effect of air transport capacity on FDI does not have a threshold effect.

关 键 词：FDI 交通运输能力 制造业 面板门槛模型 

分 类 号：F424[经济管理—产业经济] F512F832.6