核岛地基沉降去噪方法及预测技术  

Denoising Method and Prediction Technology of Nuclear Island Foundation Settlement

作　　者：王明毓 孙浩 刘锐[2] Wang Mingyu;Sun Hao;Liu Rui(China Nuclear Power Design Co. Ltd., Shenzhen, Guangdong, 518057, China;Nuclear and Radiation Safety Center, MEP, Beijing, 100082, China)

机构地区：[1]深圳中广核工程设计有限公司,广东深圳518057 [2]环境保护部核与辐射安全中心,北京100082

出　　处：《核动力工程》2018年第3期56-61,共6页Nuclear Power Engineering

摘　　要：在核电厂的核岛厂房建设过程中会对其地基变形进行观测直至建设完成。由于地址条件不同,电站核岛厂房筏基完成后的地基变形值不相同,对跨厂房的物项的影响也不相同。本文选取某核电厂地基沉降15期观测数据进行分析。首先通过小波阈值去噪法对沉降数据进行处理,预处理结果表明,沉降值和观测时间呈高相关性,结合地基沉降速率的判断,地基沉降已经趋于平稳。在此基础上,本文使用双曲线法和灰色理论法对地基沉降进行了3期的短期预测和30 a的长期预测。分析结果表明,短期预测中2种预测方法与实际测量结果相比均较为保守,其中灰色理论法最为保守;长期预测中,灰色理论法结果发散,不适合进行长期预测;双曲线法的预测结果与欧洲在运30 a左右的两个核电站的实际沉降数据较为符合,预测结果较好。The foundation deformation of nuclear power plant nuclear island is observed during the whole construction process. Different sites are with different values of foundation deformation that are with different effects on the items crossing buildings at the completion of the raft foundation of the nuclear island. In this paper, the data from 15 times of observation of the foundation settlement in a nuclear power plant are analyzed. Firstly, the observation data is disposed by the wavelet denoising technology. The pretreatment result shows that the foundation settlement is highly time dependent and tends to steady according to the foundation settlement velocity.. Based on the above, a 3 times short-term prospect and a 30 years long-term prospect are predicted with hyperbolic method and gray theory method. In short-term prospect aspect, two methods, especially the gray theory method, are both conservative comparing with the actual observation result. As for the long-term prospect, the gray theory method is inapplicability for its result diverges. While the prospect with hyperbolic method is effective comparing with the foundation settlement data of two typical nuclear power plants which have operated for 30 years.

关 键 词：小波去噪 地基沉降 双曲线法 灰色理论法 

分 类 号：TL375[核科学技术—核技术及应用]