住房体制改革与中国城镇居民储蓄  

Changes of China’s Housing Policies and Urban Households’ Savings

作　　者：钟宁桦[1] 朱亚群 陈斌开[3] ZHONG Ninghua;ZHU Yaqun;CHEN Binkai

机构地区：[1]同济大学经济与管理学院,上海200092 [2]湘潭大学商学院,湖南湘潭411105 [3]中央财经大学经济学院,北京100081

出　　处：《学术月刊》2018年第6期43-56,共14页Academic Monthly

基　　金：国家社科基金重大招标项目“转型发展新阶段中国经济增长动力研究”(14ZDB120)和“创造有利于制造业发展的竞争环境研究”(15ZDA027);上海市曙光学者人才计划项目“中国住房私有化进程、房价上涨与经济结构失衡”(16SG19)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：基于中国32个城市的城镇住户调查数据，本文发现，1998-2000年取消福利分房的政策，在很大程度上影响了中国城镇家庭的储蓄行为。研究表明：（1）在1998—2001年间，城镇居民的储蓄率平均增加了0．9％左右；（2）取消福利分房政策的影响存在异质性，居民储蓄率的提高主要体现在那些在改革前没有得到公房的家庭上，其储蓄率平均提高约2％。特别是，那些在国有企业工作、技术级别比较高、在改革前却未得到公房的家庭，其储蓄率提高约4％；（3）在90年代中后期，公房比例越低的城市，在2000年全面停止福利分房之后，该地居民对住房的需求越大，使得其房价增长越快，而居民储蓄率也越高。Based on household-level data that comes from 32 Chinese cities, this paper finds that the cancellation of welfare housing in late 1990s＇ has greatly affected the savings of urban Chinese households. We have three sets of main results. First, on average, urban households significantly raise their annual saving rate by 0.9% between 1998 and 2001. Second, the cancellation of welfare housing has heterogeneous effects. The rise of household savings is mainly driven by families not owning public welfare houses. These families have raised their average annual saving rate by 2%. Especially, families working in SOEs and holding a high position yet not owning a public welfare house have raised their annual saving rates by 4%. Third, if a city has a lower public house ratio in the late 1990s＇, after 2000 when welfare house provision is banned, the city has a higher aggregate demand for housing, which generates a higher housing price growth rate as well as higher household saving rates.

关 键 词：住房体制改革城镇居民储蓄财富冲击 

分 类 号：F12[经济管理—世界经济]