2005-2015年重庆市细菌性痢疾发病的流行病学特征及时空聚集性分析  

Analysis on the epidemiological characteristics and temporal-spatial clusters of bacillary dysentery incidence in Chongqing from 2005 to 2015

作　　者：王雪[1] 张燕[1] 幸奠国 文童 孟秋雨 唐路 WANG Xue;ZHANG Yah;XING Dian-guo;WEN Tong;MENG Qiu-yu;TANG Lu(Department of Health Statistics, School of Public Health and Management, Research Center for Medicine and So- cial Development, Innovation Center for Social Risk Governance in Health, Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing 400016, China;The Emergency Office, Municipal Health and Family Planning Commission, Chongqing 401147, China;Infectious Diseases Control and Immunization Planning Department, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Banan District, Chongqing 401320, China)

机构地区：[1]重庆医科大学公共卫生与管理学院卫生统计学教研室医学与社会发展研究中心健康领域社会风险预测治理协同创新中心,重庆400016 [2]重庆市卫生与计划生育委员会应急办,重庆401147 [3]重庆市巴南区疾病预防控制中心传染病防治与免疫规划科,重庆401320

出　　处：《中华疾病控制杂志》2018年第6期594-598,602,共6页Chinese Journal of Disease Control & Prevention

基　　金：世界卫生组织西部卫生项目(WPCHN1409378);重庆市教育委员会科学技术项目(KJ1600227)

摘　　要：目的探讨重庆市2005-2015年细菌性痢疾发病的流行病学特征和时空聚集情况,为疾病控制提供依据。方法收集重庆市2005-2015年38个区县的细菌性痢疾监测数据,利用ArcGIS 10.2软件绘制其发病率等级地图,OpenGeoda 1.2.0软件分析细菌性痢疾发病的空间相关性,SaTScan 9.4.2探索其时空聚集性。结果2005-2015年重庆市细菌性痢疾年均报告发病率为31.84/10万,0~5岁儿童发病例数最多,占43.70%;散居儿童占比最大,占41.75%;疫情有明显的季节性,5~10月为发病高峰。2005-2015年重庆市细菌性痢疾发病率均呈现空间正相关,高-高聚集区域主要位于主城区,低-低聚集区域主要位于一小时经济圈和渝东北地区。时空扫描近一步发现细菌性痢疾发病一类聚集区主要分布在主城区,主要在6~10月份存在聚集现象。结论重庆市细菌性痢疾发病存在时空聚集特点,经济较发达的主城区是细菌性痢疾防控的重点区域,每年的夏秋季应为细菌性痢疾的重点防控时段。应对儿童、农民和外来务工人员进行有针对性防控措施,从而控制其传播和扩散。Objective To analyze the epidemiology and temporal-spatial clusters of bacillary dysentery in Chongqing from 2005 to 2015. Methods The monitoring data of bacillary dysentery in 38 regions were collected from 2005 to 2015, ArcGIS 10.2 software was employed to draw the spatial distribution map of bacillary dysentery incidence, Open- Geoda 1.2. 0 was used to analyze the spatial correlation of bacillary dysentery incidence. Temporal-spatial clustering was employed by SaTScan 9.4. 2. Results The annual incidence rate was 31.84/100 000 population from 2005 to 2015 ,with higher prevalence （43.7%）among people aged 1 to 5 years, the majority of bacillary dysentery cases were scattered chil- dren（41.75% ）. The peak season was between May and October. The bacillary dysentery incidence showed a spatial auto- correlation during study period, high-high clusters distributed in main urban districts, low-low clusters presented in the one- hour economic circle and Northeast Area. The temporal-spatial clustering analysis revealed that bacillary dysentery clusters .J most likely occurred in main urban districts from June to October. Conclusions The bacillary dysentery incidence present temporal-spatial clusters feature, and the prevention and control measures should be implemented in summer and fall and focused on main urban districts. Children, farmer and migrant workers are the key population to control the spread of bacil- lary dysentery.

关 键 词：细菌性痢疾 空间自相关 时空扫描分析 

分 类 号：R516.4[医药卫生—内科学]