高铁建设对粤港澳大湾区城市群空间经济关联的改变及影响分析  

On the Impact of High-speed Railway Construction on the Change and Its Effect of Spatial Economic Association of Urban agglomerations of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area

作　　者：李彦 王鹏[1] 梁经伟 LI Yan;WANG Peng;LIANG Jing-wei(College of Economics, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632;Institute of Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao Development Studies, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China)

机构地区：[1]暨南大学经济学院,广东广州510632 [2]中山大学粤港澳发展研究院,广东广州510275

出　　处：《广东财经大学学报》2018年第3期33-43,共11页Journal of Guangdong University of Finance & Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71673112);广州市哲学社会科学"十三五"规划课题(2017GZMZYB15)

摘　　要：基于高铁建设背景,利用2003年~2015年的城市面板数据,对粤港澳大湾区城市群空间经济关联的变化特征及其影响因素进行研究,结果表明:粤港澳大湾区城市群的网络密度处于不断上升的趋势,其空间结构朝着多中心、网络化的方向发展,各城市间的经济联系也在不断增强。多期DID模型的检验结果表明,高铁开通这一政策因素有效提升了大湾区城市群的空间经济关联水平,并且人均收入、市场内部潜力和信息条件也是重要的影响因素。从大湾区—周边层面来看,高铁开通对粤港澳大湾区城市间空间经济关联的影响要大于对周边地区城市的影响。高铁建设对大湾区沿线城市的影响时滞约1年,其时间效应呈现动态变化特征。Based the background of high-speed railway construction,this paper,using the urban panel data from 2003 to 2015,makes a deep research on the change features and its influencing factors in spatial economic association of the urban agglomerations in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area. The results show that the network density of urban agglomerations in the Greater Bay Area is on the rising trend,and its spatial structure is in the development towards the polycentric and networked; the economic links among the cities are also growing. The test results through multi-DID model show that the policy for opening high-speed railway has effectively promoted the spatial economic correlation level of urban agglomerations in the Greater Bay area,and the per capita income,internal market potential and information conditions are also important factors. From the perspective of the Greater Bay Area and peripheric area,the impact of the opening of high-speed railway on urban spatial economic association between the cities in the Greater Bay Area is greater than that of the cities in the peripheral areas. It is around one year of time-delay in the influence of high-speed railway construction on the cities along the railway in the Greater Bay Area,and its time effect is characterized with dynamic change.

关 键 词：粤港澳大湾区 城市群 高铁建设 空间经济关联 社会网络分析 多期DID模型 

分 类 号：F532.3[经济管理—产业经济]