公共基础设施投资能够促进就业增长吗?——基于面板双重门限模型的实证分析  

Can Public Infrastructure Investment Promote Employment Growth? An Empirical Analysis Based on the Panel Double Threshold Model

作　　者：杨飞虎[1] 晏朝飞[1] YANG Fei - hu;Yan Chao - fei(School of Economics, Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanchang 330013, China)

机构地区：[1]江西财经大学经济学院,南昌330013

出　　处：《云南财经大学学报》2018年第7期23-34,共12页Journal of Yunnan University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"新型城镇化建设中公共投资效率评估及效率提升机制研究"(71764010);国家社会科学基金重点项目"促进中国经济长期持续均衡增长的公共投资问题研究"(12AJL006)

摘　　要：利用2003~2015年中国30个省份的面板数据,通过固定效应的面板门限模型研究公共基础设施投资对就业增长的影响,实证结果显示:在全国层面,中国公共基础设施投资对就业增长存在显著的双重门限效应,当人均公共基础设施存量未达到第一门限值0.813万元/人时,公共基础设施投资对就业增长为显著的负向效应;当人均公共基础设施存量跨过第一门限值0.813万元/人时,公共基础设施投资对就业增长产生显著的正向效应;当积累至第二门限值3.965万元/人时,公共基础设施投资对就业增长的正向促进作用下降,呈现明显的收敛效应。在区域层面,东、中、西部地区也均存在双重门限效应,其中东、中部地区的公共基础设施投资对就业增长也均呈现出负向、正向与收敛效应;西部地区在跨越第二门限值后才产生显著的正向效应,尚未表现出收敛效应。最后根据二者间的非线性双重结构变化关系,提出政策建议。By using the panel data of China＇s 30 provinces and regions from 2003 to 2015, the paper studies the impact of public infrastructure investment on employment growth through panel threshold model with fixed effect. Empirical results show that in the national level, public infrastructure investment has significant double threshold effect on employment growth. When the stock of per capital public infrastructure does not reach the first threshold value of RMB 8130 Yuan per person, public infrastructure investment has a significant negative effect on employment growth; When the stock of per capital public infrastructure reaches the first threshold value of RMB 8130 Yuan per person, public infrastructure investment has a significant positive effect on employment growth; and when the stock accumulates to the second threshold value of RMB 39650 Yuan per person, the promotion function begins to decrease, which results in an obvious convergence effect. In the regional level, the double threshold effect exists both in the eastern, central and western parts of China, in which the public infrastructure investment level in the eastern and central areas has similar negative, positive and the convergence effects on employment growth. The impact in the western region does not show a significant positive effect until exceeding the second threshold value, and there is no convergence effect. Finally, the paper puts forward policies and suggestions based on the nonlinear double structural change relationship of the two.

关 键 词：公共基础设施投资 就业增长 面板双重门限模型 

分 类 号：F120.3[经济管理—世界经济]