堆型技术标准化对我国核电机组建造工期的影响研究  

Research on the Effect of Reactor Technology Standardization on NPP Construction Duration in China

作　　者：何昉[1] 徐鬻[1] 孔德泰 官思发 HE Fang;XU Yu;KONG Detai;GUAN Sifa(China Institute of Nuclear Information ＆ Economics, Beijing 100048, China)

机构地区：[1]中国核科技信息与经济研究院,北京100048

出　　处：《建筑经济》2018年第6期48-52,共5页Construction Economy

基　　金：2017年中国核工业集团公司重大问题研究"核电建设工程造价控制方法研究"(2017-ZD-25)

摘　　要：基于我国核电机组建造历史数据,采用Cox比例风险模型,对堆型技术标准化影响核电机组建造工期的规模效应和学习效应进行实证检验。结果表明,特定堆型技术的历史机组建造数量每增加1台,在建机组完工的瞬时概率提高15.28%;而采取标准化堆型的业主管理的在建机组,任意时点的完工瞬时概率则提高174.7%;在新常态下,核电企业应更加注重堆型技术标准化,通过经验学习和批量化建造,不断提高核电经济竞争力。Based on the data of construction of NPP in China,this paper studies the scale and learning effect of reactor technology standardization on construction duration of NPP through Cox proportional hazards model. The result shows that each additional unit of specific reactor technology is associated with a 15.28% increase in instantaneous probability of completion of unit,and under the more standardized reactor technology of owners,the instantaneous probability of completion of unit will increase 174.7%. Under the new normal,nuclear power enterprises should place more emphasis on reactor technology standardization and improve the economic competitiveness of nuclear power through mass construction and experiential learning.

关 键 词：堆型技术标准化 核电建造工期 生存分析 COX比例风险模型 

分 类 号：F407.9[经济管理—产业经济]