基于家庭收入的广州市私家车通勤出行率研究  

Commuter Trip Rate of Private Cars in Guangzhou Based on Household Income

作　　者：胡郁葱[1] 黄靖翔[1] 石一飞 张曼莹 HU Yucong;HUANG Jingxiang;SHI Yifei;ZHANC- Manying(School of Civil Engineering and Transportation, Soulh China University of Technology,Guangzhou 540640, Guangdong. P. R. Chin)

机构地区：[1]华南理工大学土木与交通学院,广东广州510640

出　　处：《重庆交通大学学报（自然科学版）》2018年第4期102-108,共7页Journal of Chongqing Jiaotong University(Natural Science)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(61174188);华南理工大学2016年优秀硕士创新基金项目(20160526)

摘　　要：不同家庭收入的私家车出行者受交通政策影响所做出的反应会有差异。为对该差异进行定量研究,在对广州市私家车出行者进行SP/RP调查的基础上,运用Logistic模型对私家车通勤出行率的影响因素进行研究,分别探究停车费、燃油费和公交等车时间对不同家庭收入的私家车通勤出行率的影响,模型均通过参数检验和拟合优度检验。研究结果显示:不同因素变化对私家车通勤出行率影响差异明显,相同的变化幅度下,燃油费用、停车费用和公交等车时间的调节作用依次降低。研究所得模型可以帮助交通管理者制定私家车出行需求管理政策,也可用于评估政策的实施效果。When the traffic policy changes,the responses of private car commuters with different household income will be different. In order to study the difference quantitatively,Logistic model was used to study the factors which influenced the commuter trip rate of private car in Guangzhou on the basis of the SP/RP investigation. And the impact of parking fees,fuel costs and the waiting time of buses on the commuter trip rate of private car with different household income were explored respectively. All models passed the parameter tests and the fitting goodness tests. Research results declare that the impacts of different factors on the commuter trip rate of private car were significantly different. Under the same range of changes,the adjustments of fuel costs,parking fees,and the waiting time of buses were successively reduced. The research models can assist the traffic managers to formulate private cars transportation demand management policies,and can also be used to evaluate the effectiveness of policies.

关 键 词：交通运输工程 私家车 出行率 SP/RP调查 LOGISTIC模型 

分 类 号：U491.1[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]