全球价值链视角下中国FTA的贸易效应再检验  

A re-examination of the trade effects of China's FTAs from the perspective of global value chains

作　　者：陈淑梅[1] 林晓凤 

机构地区：[1]东南大学经济管理学院,江苏南京211189

出　　处：《东南大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2018年第3期32-42,共11页Journal of Southeast University(Philosophy and Social Science)

基　　金：国家社科基金重点项目"‘一带一路’战略背景下我国应对TPP;TTIP与RCEP的策略研究"(16AJL010)成果之一

摘　　要：在"逆全球化"潮流持续涌动和全球价值链分工不断深化的背景下,已经签署生效的自由贸易协定(FTA)需要重新综合评价其贸易效应,才能为加快实施我国自由贸易区战略提供现实支撑。首先分析中国与FTA伙伴间的增加值贸易现状,接着利用扩展的引力模型检验既有FTA的贸易效应。实证结果表明:从整体来看,中国FTA对双边贸易确实存在贸易创造效应,但实际创造的贸易收益要小于贸易总额的增量;从出口国内增加值率的"异质性"来看,中国对FTA伙伴出口中的国内增加值占比越高,对应FTA带来的贸易创造效应越大;从个体差异来看,FTA的贸易效应因贸易伙伴和实施阶段而异。基于以上研究结论建议我国紧抓"一带一路"建设契机,加强国际合作,加快融入全球价值链,以更好地发挥自贸区对贸易增长的促进作用。In the context of the continued surging trend of counter-globalization and the deepening division of global value chains,the trade effects of free trade agreements(FTAs)signed between China and its trade partners need to be reevaluated comprehensively so as to provide realistic support for accelerating the implementation of China’s free trade area strategy.After analyzing bilateral trade in value added between China and its FTA partners,this paper reexamines the trade effects of these FTAs by extended gravity model.The empirical results show that FTAs do promote trade between China and its partners on the whole,but the actual trade gains are less than the increase in the total amount of trade.In view of the heterogeneity of domestic value-added ratio in export,the higher the domestic value-added share in China’s export to partners,the greater the trade creation effect generated by the corresponding FTA.In terms of individual differences,the trade effect of each FTA varies with trade partners and implementation phases.Based on the above conclusions,it is recommended that China should seize the opportunity of propelling the Belt and Road initiative,and strengthen international cooperation while accelerating its integration into global value chains in order to give full play of the role of FTA in promoting trade growth.

关 键 词：自由贸易协定 增加值贸易 引力模型 贸易效应 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易]