三峡水库下游宜昌至汉口河段干支流平枯水遭遇特点分析  

Characteristics of normal-dry runoff in the mainstream and tributaries from Yichang to Hankou downstream the Three Georges reservoir

作　　者：朱思瑾 余明辉[1] 鲍正风[2] 徐涛[2] ZHU Si-jin;YU Ming-hui;BAO Zheng-feng;XU Tao(State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Sciences, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China;Three Gorges Project Cascade Dispatching Center, Yichang 443133, China)

机构地区：[1]武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,湖北武汉430072 [2]三峡水利枢纽梯级调度通信中心,湖北宜昌443133

出　　处：《泥沙研究》2018年第3期7-14,共8页Journal of Sediment Research

基　　金：“十二五”国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项课题(2014ZX07104-005);国家自然科学基金项目(11472198)

摘　　要：针对三峡水库下游枯水期生态环境健康发展用水的迫切需求,基于宜昌至汉口河段近60年的干支流实测径流资料,运用统计法分析各支流平枯水遭遇的可能性及条件概率,为三峡水库制定平枯水水量调度方案提供依据。以全年、丰、平、枯水期为不同时间尺度进行统计,结果表明,清江、城陵矶和汉江三条主要入汇支流同枯遭遇概率最高为14.3%;三支流两两组合中,以清江和城陵矶组合同枯遭遇概率最高达26.5%。以径流量为评价指标,可参考2006年全年和1979年枯水期干支流来流过程制定三峡水库全年和枯水期枯水水量调度方案;可参考2012年全年和2008年枯水期支流来流过程与长江干流宜昌站相应时段多年平均下泄流量制定三峡水库全年和枯水期平水水量调度方案。Based on observed runoff data of mainstream of the Yangtze River and three tributaries named as the Qing River,the Chenglingji River and the Han River,this paper adopted statistical method to study normaldry runoff coincidence and conditional probabilities among tributaries from Yichang to Hankou of the Yangtze River downstream the Three Georges Reservoir,so as to provide operation suggestion. Considering the whole year,wet season,normal season and dry season as different time scales,the statistical results show that the synchronous dry events of all three tributaries occurred at the highest probability of 14. 3% and the highest probability of the synchronous dry events for any two tributaries occurred in the combination of the Qing River and the Chenglingji River,which reached up to 26. 5%. To Taking runoff as the evaluation index,the runoff processes of the mainstream and tributaries in 2006,and the dry season in 1979 to be chosen as the references to make the regulation scheme in dry year or in dry season. The runoff processes of the tributaries in 2012 and in the dry season in 2008 can be chosen as the references to make the regulation scheme in normal year or in normal season. It was expected that this study could provide a reference on optimization of the Three Georges Reservoir operation to satisfy the demand of water volume from Yichang to Hankou in dry season or dry year.

关 键 词：宜昌至汉口河段 平枯遭遇 三峡水库 径流量 调度方案 

分 类 号：TV145[水利工程—水力学及河流动力学]