FISIM核算之参考利率的比较与选择  

The Comparison and Selection of Reference Interest Rates for FISIM Accounting

作　　者：贾小爱[1] 李云发[1,2] Jia Xiao＇ai;Li Yunfa

机构地区：[1]山东工商学院统计学院 [2]首都经济贸易大学财政税务学院

出　　处：《统计研究》2018年第5期9-18,共10页Statistical Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目"SNA(2008)框架下FISIM核算方法的改进;拓展与中国实践研究"(14CTJ001)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：现有核算体系中,间接测算的金融中介服务(FISIM)出现核算漏洞,致使SNA内部出现核算不一致性以及FISIM负值。因此,SNA2008建议参考利率应反映存贷款的风险和期限结构。随之,国际与欧洲FISIM工作组探讨了各种经风险和期限调整的参考利率以改进FISIM核算,包括加权参考利率、匹配参考利率、长短期双参考利率、中点参考利率与SNA建议的参考利率。为了检验上述参考利率在我国的适用性,本文从利率的波动性、FISIM负值发生的可能性以及对FISIM生产与使用造成的影响等方面,对这些参考利率进行实证检验。研究发现,期限调整方面,加权参考利率与长短期双参考利率相对稳定,发生FISIM负值的可能性也较小。其中,加权参考利率更为简单,实践操作性也更强。我国账面价值参考利率在稳定性、FISIM负值、风险调整方面均存在比较优势,缺点是没有考虑参考利率的期限调整。There is an accounting loophole in the Financial Intermediation Services Indirectly Measured（ FISIM）,which causes the internal accounting inconsistency of SNA and the negative figures of FISIM in the current System of National Accounts. So SNA（ 2008） suggested that reference rate reflect the risks and the structure of terms of deposit and loan. Therefore,International and European FISIM working groups have explored the various risk-adjusted and term-adjusted reference interest rates,including the weighted rates,the matching rates,the short-term and long-term rates,midpoint rates,as well as the reference rates recommended by SNA. An empirical study in this paper is done on those five reference interest rates in order to find out their applicability in China by testing the interest rate volatility,the possible occurrence of FISIM negative figures,and the impacts on the production and use of FISIM,etc. The results show that weighted reference interest rates,the short-term and long-term reference interest rates are relatively stable in terms of terms adjusted,with little chance of FISIM negative figures. In which,the weighted reference rates are simpler and much more operational in China. The reference interest rates in Chinese book value have comparative advantages in terms of their stability,negative FISIM figures,and risk adjustment,while the disadvantage is the term adjustment of the reference interest rates is not taken into account.

关 键 词：FISIM 参考利率 期限调整 检验 

分 类 号：F222.33[经济管理—国民经济]