气候变化下的流域面源污染响应模型评估  

Estimation of Watershed Non-point Source Pollution Response toward Climate Change:a Coupled Modeling Approach

作　　者：沙健[1] 路瑞[2] 续衍雪[2] 尚云涛 李雪[1] 曹佳蕊 陈奕霖 SHA Jian;LU Rui;XU Yanxue;SHANG Yuntao;LI Xue;CAO Jiarui;CHEN Yilin(l.Key Laboratory of Tianjin of Water Resource and Water Environment, Tianjin Normal University, Tianjin 300387, Chin;Environmental Planning Academy, Ministry of Environment Protection, Beijing 100012, China;School of Geography and Environment Science, Tianjin Normal University, Tianjin 300387, China)

机构地区：[1]天津师范大学天津市水资源与水环境重点实验室,天津300387 [2]环境保护部环境规划院,北京100012 [3]天津师范大学地理与环境科学学院.天津300387

出　　处：《环境科学与技术》2018年第6期181-187,共7页Environmental Science & Technology

基　　金：天津师范大学博士基金(52XB1516); 天津市水资源与水环境重点实验室开放基金(117-YF11700102); 天津市高等学校科技发展计划项目(043135202JW1716)

摘　　要：该研究提出了一种基于耦合模型联用的方法,对未来气候变化影响下的流域面源污染负荷特征响应进行定量化评估。选取了中国安徽省练江流域作为案例研究对象,针对其水体中的总氮污染物负荷通量及来源构成特征开展模型分析。使用LARS-WG气象发生器模型对HADCM3气候模式结果进行时空降尺度分析,分别模拟3种典型温室气体排放情景(A1B、A2、B1)在未来不同时期的逐日气象数据序列,使用区域营养盐负荷模型(ReNuMa)对练江流域水体中的总氮污染开展源解析,评估未来变化气候条件下的流域污染负荷通量及来源比例构成,并与现状污染源特征进行对比,分析流域面源污染对气候变化的响应。结果表明,未来流域总氮污染负荷通量整体呈上升趋势,且主要集中在秋冬季节,增加的总氮污染主要来自耕地和自然用地,经地表径流和地下潜流过程进入水体,在管理上应予以关注。A coupled modeling approach was proposed for quantitatively estimating the watershed non-point source load property response to future climate changes. The Lianjiang Watershed located in Anhui Province, China was set as case study and the fluxes and source apportionments of total nitrogen pollution in the water were modeled. The LARS-WG weather generator model was used to downscale the results of HADCM3 climate model to generate synthetic daily weather data under 3 typical greenhouse gas emission scenarios（A1 B, A2, B1） in different future periods. The regional nutrient management model（ReNuMa） was employed to model the total nitrogen source apportionments of Lianjiang River and estimate the future pollution fluxes and contribution proportion under changed climate conditions, which were further compared to current status to estimate the response of watershed non-point source pollution to climate change. The results showed that future watershed nitrogen pollution fluxes would have an overall increasing trend that mainly focused in autumn and winter. Most additional pollution would come from farmland and natural land and enter into water through runoff and shallow ground flow process,which should be of great concern in local management.

关 键 词：面源污染 气候变化 模型联用 ReNuMa LARS-WG 

分 类 号：X522[环境科学与工程—环境工程]