中国服务业发展的轨迹、逻辑与战略转变——改革开放40年来的经验分析  

The Process, Logic and Strategic Change of the Development of China’s Service Industry--An Empirical Analysis of 40 Years’ Experience since Reform and Opening-up

作　　者：凌永辉[1] 刘志彪[2] Ling Yong-hui;Liu Zhi-biao

机构地区：[1]南京大学商学院 [2]南京大学长江产业经济研究院

出　　处：《经济学家》2018年第7期45-54,共10页Economist

基　　金：教育部人文社科重点研究基地重大项目“长江三角洲全面建设小康社会中的协调发展研究”(16JJD790023);广东省哲学社会科学“十三五”规划2017年度学科共建项目“逆全球化背景下粤港澳大湾区产业升级驱动力研究”(GD17XYJ01)

摘　　要：改革开放以来，服务业已经成为中国国民经济的第一大产业。但与发达国家相比，无论在总量规模还是在内部行业结构上，中国服务业（尤其是现代服务业）的发展水平仍相当滞后。这种现象发生的背后逻辑在于出口导向战略下的国际代工模式在供给层面上对国内本地化的服务业企业产生了正向的技术溢出效应，但同时也在需求层面上造成了负向的市场挤出效应，而且随着全球化分工的深入，这种市场挤出效应正在逐渐超越技术溢出效应。据此，本文提出新时代背景下的中国服务业发展亟须转向内需主导型战略的重要命题，主张依靠国内市场主体的有效需求为主导，虹吸国内外优质生产要素为我所用，在差异化的垄断竞争中，促进当前及未来服务业的创新和发展。Since the reform and opening-up, the service industry has become the largest industry in China＇ s national economy. However, compared with developed countries, the level of development of China＇ s service industry （especially the modern service industry） is still quite lagged behind in terms of the total scale and the structure of its internal industries. This paper argues that the logic behind this phenomenon lies in the international OEM model under the export-oriented strategy. It has a positive technological spillover effect on the domestic localized service enterprises at the supply level, meanwhile, it also has a negative market crowding-out effect on the demand level. And with the deepening of globalization, the latter overtaking the former. Therefore, this paper puts forward the important proposition that the development of China＇ s service industry urgently needs to turn to the domestic demand-led strategy in the new era. It argues that we should depend on the effective demand of the domestic market to siphon the domestic and foreign high-quality production factors and to promote the innovation and development of China＇ s service industry with monopolistic competition in the future.

关 键 词：改革开放 服务业 出口导向 内需主导 

分 类 号：F062.9[经济管理—政治经济学]