紧凑的城市是低碳的吗?  

ARE COMPACT CITIES LOW-CARBON?

作　　者：易艳春 马思思 关卫军 YI Yanchun;MA Sisi;GUAN Weijun

机构地区：[1]湖北师范大学经济与管理学院 [2]湖北师范大学教育信息与技术学院

出　　处：《城市规划》2018年第5期31-38,86,共9页City Planning Review

基　　金：2014年度国家社科基金项目"我国城镇化阶段的低碳发展路径研究"(14BJY068);2015年度湖北师范学院优秀创新团队(T201514)

摘　　要：已有文献在解释城镇化对中国碳排放的影响时,多集中在人口城镇化上,关于城镇空间形态的碳排放效应的实证研究很少。研究采用108个地级及地级以上城市的2003-15年间的城市样本数据,用居住密度度量城镇空间形态,对居住密度等变量影响碳排放的演进进行了实证分析。研究发现:居住密度是影响碳排放的重要因素,不论是在东部城市、中部城市、还是西部城市,居住密度的提高均显著地减少了CO2排放;人口城镇化的进程导致碳排放大幅度增长;我国城市发展水平尚未到达"倒U"型环境库兹涅茨曲线的拐点,位于曲线左侧;我国没有变成FDI的"污染天堂",相反绿色外资的引进显著地减少了城镇碳排放;中东部城市绿色低碳转型的环境红利开始显现,而西部城市低碳的发展模式尚未实现。因此,中国提出的建立"紧凑城市"实现低碳发展的理念具有一定的可行性和必要性。In explaining the impact of urbanization on China＇s carbon emissions, most existing literature focused on population urbanization, while little research was concerned about the effects of urban form. Adopting panel data of 108 cities at or above prefecture level from 2003 to 2015, this paper uses residential density to measure urban form, and conducts empirical analysis on the effects of residential density and other factors on the evolution of carbon emissions. The paper finds that： as a determinant factor of urban form, residential density plays an important role in influencing carbon emissions; whether in eastern, middle, or western cities, improving residential density can significantly reduce carbon emissions; population urbanization leads to large growth in carbon emissions; China＇s urban development level has not reached the turning point of inverted U-shaped environmental Kuznets curve, which is located on the left side of the curve. Moreover, China did not become the ＂pollution heaven＂ of FDI; instead, the introduction of green FDI has reduced carbon emissions significantly. The environmental dividends of low-carbon transformation have emerged in eastern and middle cities, while lowcarbon development pattem in western cities has not been implemented. Therefore, the strategic target of China, which is establishing compact cities and realizing low-carbon development, is feasible and necessary.

关 键 词：城镇化 居住密度 城镇空间形态 碳排放 紧凑城市 

分 类 号：TU984.1[建筑科学—城市规划与设计] X51[环境科学与工程—环境工程]