中国木质林产品外贸依存度算法研究及其测评  

The Measuring Methods of Dependence on Foreign Trade of China's Wooden Forest Products and the Estimating after Measuring

作　　者：于豪谅[1] 田明华[1] 史莹赫 程经纬 张振宇 Yu Haoliang;Tian Minghua;Shi Yinghe;Cheng Jingwei;Zhang Zhenyu(School of Economics and Management ,Beijing Forestry University Beijing 100083)

机构地区：[1]北京林业大学经济管理学院,北京100083

出　　处：《林业科学》2018年第5期152-167,共16页Scientia Silvae Sinicae

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目"低碳经济下中国木质林产品贸易政策转型研究"(13YJA790106);北京林业大学青年教师科学研究中长期项目"经济新常态下中国林产品贸易转型升级研究"(2015ZCQ-JG-02)

摘　　要：【目的】随着中国成为世界第一大木材进口国和第二大木材消耗国,大量依赖木材进口对中国林业产业安全日益形成威胁,更被指责为"毁林"的罪魁祸首和"世界森林资源的黑洞";而作为木质林产品出口大国,对国际市场的严重依赖也蕴藏着越来越大的风险。目前中国木质林产品外贸依存度尚没有统一的定义、计算方法和口径,现有测算结果差异很大,直接影响到对中国木质林产品外贸依存程度的正确判断,进而影响到相关贸易、产业政策的制定,迫切需要明确定义、制定科学的算法。【方法】分析现有中国木质林产品外贸依存度研究中的各种定义、算法、研究角度、使用目的、统计口径和数据来源,研究其存在的问题,总结不同算法反映的信息、适用范围和数据要求。利用改进的算法,使用中国林业统计数据,测算中国木质林产品外贸依存度水平和变化趋势;使用联合国粮食及农业组织数据,测算并比较评价世界主要林产品进口国木质林产品外贸依存度水平。【结果】提出考虑林业产业总产值中产业构成的传统价值量算法的修订算法,基于该算法的测算结果显示,2014年中国木质林产品进口依存度和出口依存度分别为12.59%和14.51%,并不高;明确原木折算法在木材资源供给进口依存度测算中的应用,提出木材消费净进口依存度及其算法,讨论是否计算废纸问题,确定原木折算法使用的原木当量系数、在纵向和横向比较中应使用的林产品统计口径范围和数据来源,基于该算法的测算结果显示,2002—2014年中国木材资源供给进口依存度和木材消费净进口依存度均呈先下降再上升的趋势,2014年分别为47.94%和35.85%,与世界主要林产品进口国相比均处于中等水平;提出产品数量法适用于计算某些林产品的生产出口依存度和消费进口依存度,确定其具体算法,对刨花板等中国主要�【Objective】 With China becoming the largest country of wood importing and the second largest country of wood consumption in world,the highly dependent on timber imports,has threatened increasingly China’s forestry industry security,and China is often accused of the criminal chieftains of ＂deforestation＂and ＂the black hole＂of the world’s forest resources. As a big exporter of wooden forest products,there is also a growing risk for serious dependence on the international market. Despite being concerned by many scholars,but at present,there is no unified definition,measuring method and statistical caliber about the foreign trade dependence of China’s wooden forest products,and the existing calculation result are very different. All of these have a direct impact on the correct judgment of the degree of dependence on foreign trade of China ’s wooden forest products,and thus affect the formulation of relevant trade and industrialpolicies. It is urgent to define the concept and to make a scientific measuring method. 【Method 】 This paper analyzes various definitions,measuring methods,research perspective and purpose,statistical caliber,data sources and existing problems of the dependence on foreign trade in existing researches,and also summarizes the reflected information,the scope of application and the data requirements of different measuring methods. Using the improved measuring method,based on the Chinese forestry statistics,this paper calculates the degrees of the dependence on foreign trade of China’s wooden forest products,and makes a longitudinal comparison. Using the data of food and agriculture organization（ FAO）,this paper calculates and compares the degrees of the dependence on foreign trade of wooden forest products,in major trading countries of wooden forest products.【Result】 This paper puts forward a revised value method about the traditional measuring method,which takes into account the industrial structure of the gross output value of forestry industry. Using this revise

关 键 词：木质林产品 外贸依存度 算法 测算评估 产业安全 

分 类 号：F326.2[经济管理—产业经济]