金融发展影响中国能源消费的门槛效应分析  

Analysis on the threshold effect of financial development on China's energy consumption

作　　者：陈志刚[1,2] 郭夏月 CHEN Zhi-gang;GUO Xia-yue(Center for Economic Development Research,Wuhan University,Wuhan Hubei 430072,China;Institute for the Development of Central China,Wuhan University,Wuhan Hubei 430072,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉大学经济发展研究中心,湖北武汉430072 [2]武汉大学中国中部发展研究院,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2018年第6期11-19,共9页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目"金融发展与科技创新:理论和中国经验"(批准号:13AJL005);教育部重点研究基地重大项目"城乡协调发展进程中的农村金融创新研究"(批准号:17JJD790017)

摘　　要：中国共产党十八届五中全会提出绿色发展理念,如何坚持绿色发展理念,在保持经济中高速增长的同时,维持能源的可持续利用是中国面临的重大发展问题。在促进经济增长的同时,金融发展对一国能源消费也产生重要影响,在绿色发展中扮演了不可或缺的角色。本文考虑到金融发展与能源消费的非线性关系,根据1997—2015年中国30个省份的面板数据,运用门槛回归模型实证考察不同经济增长水平下金融发展对中国能源消费的不同影响,并检验金融发展影响能源消费的渠道。研究表明:(1)金融发展与能源消费之间存在显著的门槛效应,信贷规模与能源消费之间存在显著的双门槛效应,证券市场融资规模、金融业竞争程度呈现为单门槛效应;(2)随着经济增长水平的上升,信贷规模、金融业竞争程度与能源消费之间呈现倒U型关系,证券市场融资规模会降低能源消费水平,FDI规模与能源消费之间始终为正相关;(3)从影响渠道看,在中高速增长及所有的增长阶段,经济增长分别增强了信贷规模、金融业竞争程度对能源消费的影响,但技术创新渠道并不畅通。研究最后建议,政府制定能源发展政策时,加强金融政策与节能减排规划的融合,政策着力点因地区经济发展差异而有所不同,逐渐消除技术优势转化为绿色发展优势的障碍,加快建设资源节约型、环境友好型社会,为全球生态安全作出新贡献。The Fifth Plenary Session of the 18 th Communist Party of China（ CPC） Central Committee put forward the concept of green development. Under this context,adhering to the concept of green development,and maintaining the sustainable utilization of energy while keeping a medium-to-high level of economic growth is a major development issue in China. Besides promoting economic growth,financial development also exerts a significant influence on a country’s energy consumption,and plays an indispensable role in the development of green economy. Considering the nonlinear relationship between financial development and energy consumption,utilizing the panel data of 30 provinces from 1997 to 2015 in China,we employ the threshold regression model to analyze the impact of financial development on China’s energy consumption under different economic growth levels,and test the channels through which financial development affects energy consumption. We find that： first,there is a significant threshold effect of financial development on energy consumption. Specifically,there is a significant double-threshold effect of the credit scale on energy consumption,while there is a single threshold effect of the financing scale of the securities market on the degree of competition in the financial industry on energy consumption. Second,with the increase of economic growth level,the credit scale,the degree of financial industry competition and energy consumption exhibit an inverted U-shaped relationship. The financing scale of securities market reduces energy consumption level,while FDI scale has always been positively related to energy consumption. Third,from the perspective of influencing channels,at the medium and high growth levels of credit scale and all growth levels of finance competition degree,economic growth has strengthened the impact of financial development on energy consumption. However,the technological innovation channel does not work. The findings indicate that the government should strengthen the integration of fin

关 键 词：金融发展 能源消费 门槛回归模型 渠道分析 

分 类 号：F832.1[经济管理—金融学]