中国环境效率及污染物减排潜力研究  

Study on China's environmental efficiency and efficiency-based emission reduction potential

作　　者：王瑞[1] 诸大建[1] WANG Rui;ZHU Da-jian(School of Economics and Management,Tongji University,Shanghai 200092,Chin)

机构地区：[1]同济大学经济与管理学院,上海200092

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2018年第6期149-159,共11页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目"基于稳态经济理论的低碳竞争力研究"(批准号:71173157);国家社会科学基金项目"中国低碳发展的评价指标研究"(批准号:11AZD102)

摘　　要：在中国提出主要污染物排放总量约束目标的当前,测算与日益趋紧的"总量控制"政策目标相契合的环境绩效和减排潜力,具有重要的应用与学术价值。基于此,本文充分考虑不同地区发展的不平衡状况和技术差异性特点,应用与数据生成过程(DGP)相一致的SFA共同前沿两步回归方法,科学估计2004—2014年间中国省际环境成本模型,有效克服传统估计方法存在的偏误,进而根据实际污染(SO_2)排放与最小排放量的距离计算环境效率与减排潜力。结果显示:(1)经济发展水平、产业结构、能源消费结构、能源价格、家庭数量以及交通出行对中国SO_2排放量增加均有一定的促进作用,而技术水平提高与家庭规模扩大显著抑制了污染排放。(2)在大多数情况下,经济开放的三个维度与研发投入对环境效率具有积极影响,环境治理投资与国有资产占比对环境效率具有负向效应;各种外部环境变量对技术差距比的影响不同,东中部地区环境技术显著高于西部地区。(3)当前中国总体环境效率不高,共同前沿下的环境效率年均只有0.537,尚具有很大的提升空间。中国各省份、三大地区的环境效率和排放技术差异显著,不管是总体环境效率还是减排技术,东部地区都比中西部地区高得多。(4)中国的总量减排任务可以通过改善环境效率来完成。如果环境效率提高到100%,污染物排放总量将会降低大约1 192万t,相当于中国在2014年污染物排放总量的60.36%。短期内可根据各区域现有技术水准设定有区别的减排目标,长期而言,应将参照基准扩大到全国,释放最大的潜在减排空间。With China’s current commitment to constraint the emission quantity of its main pollutants,there is important application and academic value in calculating environmental performance and emission reduction potential in accordance with the stricter ‘total amount control’policy goal. Based on this,this paper fully considers unbalanced regional development and technological heterogeneity,and scientifically estimates the environmental cost model of 30 Chinese provinces for the period 2004 to 2014. We employ a metafrontier stochastic analysis with a two-step estimation method,which is consistent with the data generation process and can effectively address the bias and errors typical of a traditional estimation method. The efficiency estimates quantify the distance from the policy objective of minimum sulfur dioxide（ SO2） emissions. We then calculate pollution reduction potential based on environmental efficiency and pollutant emissions. The results indicate that：（1） The level of economic development,industrial structure,energy consumption structure,energy price,number of households,and transportation play certain roles in promoting China ’s SO2 emissions,but technological progress and family scale significantly inhibit pollution emissions.（2） In most cases,the three dimensions of economic opening and research and development investment have positive impacts on environmental efficiency,while environmental governance investment and the ratio of state-owned assets investment have a negative effect on environmental efficiency. The influences of various external environmental variables on the technology gap ratio are different,and the environmental technologies in the eastern and central regions are significantly more developed than those in the western region.（3） Currently,the value of China’s overall environmental efficiency is not high,with an average score of 0. 537 using metafrontier,indicating that there continues to be significant room for improvement. There are obvious differences in envi

关 键 词：中国环境效率 共同前沿 随机前沿成本函数 减排潜力 

分 类 号：F205[经济管理—国民经济]