上海合作组织自贸区建设及其经济效应分析  

On the Feasibility and Economical Effect of a Free Trade Area for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization

作　　者：胡贝贝[1] 吴笛[1] 李新[2] 

机构地区：[1]上海财经大学国际工商管理学院 [2]上海国际问题研究院

出　　处：《国际展望》2018年第3期50-69,154-155,共20页Global Review

基　　金：上海财经大学研究生创新计划项目(CXJJ-2016-351和CXJJ-2015-349)的阶段性研究成果

摘　　要：加强区域经济合作是上海合作组织的重要目标,上海合作组织自贸区建设是成员国关注的热点问题。上合组织自贸区的建立既有利于各成员国的经济社会发展,也有利于成员国之间经贸政策的协调,因此建立上合组织自贸区具有必要性;而上合组织成员国之间密切的贸易联系和贸易结构的互补性,各成员国合作意愿较强,中亚安全形势向好,都使建立上合组织自贸区成为可能。GTAP模型的模拟分析也表明,上合组织自贸区的建立,能够产生明显的贸易转移和贸易创造效应,对促进上合组织成员国经济增长和社会福利的改善具有积极作用。因此,中国应在促进基础设施建设、推动贸易自由化、加速投融资一体化、完善成员国之间政策协调和密切区域内人文交流五个方面对上海合作组织自贸区的建设路径和方法进行思考和探讨。Strengthening economic cooperation among members has been high on the Shanghai Cooperation Organization's agenda and establishing a free trade area is a viable way. A membership-based free trade zone is necessary in that it can promote regional economic and social development and improve policy coordination. It is also feasible in that the close ties and complementarity among member countries as well as the general stability in Central Asia have increased their willingness. The establishment of a SCO FTA could also generate considerable trade diversion and creation, thus further boosting economic growth and improving social welfare. Therefore, it is worth the effort for China to seriously study and explore the early establishment of a free trade area in five dimension, i.e., strengthening infrastructure connectivity, facilitating trade liberalization, promoting financial and investment integration, enhancing policy coordination, and increase intercultural and people-to-people exchanges.

关 键 词：上海合作组织 自由贸易区 区域经济合作 GTAP模型 

分 类 号：D814.1[政治法律—国际关系]