长江流域连续大洪水年机理分析及预报  

Mechanism analysis and forecast of continuous years of big-flood in Yangtze River Basin

作　　者：李文龙 李鸿雁[2] LI Wenlong;LI Hongyan(, Fengman Hydropower Plant of State Grid Xin Yuan Company Limited, Jilin 132108, Jilin, China;, College of Environment and Resources, Jilin University, Changchun 130021, Jilin, China)

机构地区：[1]国网新源控股有限公司丰满发电厂,吉林吉林132108 [2]吉林大学环境与资源学院,吉林长春130021

出　　处：《水利水电技术》2018年第5期1-8,共8页Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering

基　　金：国网新源控股有限公司技术开发项目(SGTYHT/17-JS-203);国家自然科学基金项目(51379088);国家自然科学基金委员会与韩国国家研究基金会联合资助合作交流项目(51711540299)

摘　　要：针对长江流域大洪水预报问题,以提高预报可信度、减少误报为目标,依据可公度理论方法,基于长江流域长期历史大洪水资料,综合考虑天文因素、气候特征和局地自然地理特征等因素,采用三元、五元可公度法模型进行预测并对成果进行验证,结合太阳黑子和月球赤纬角等天文因素活动规律进行相关分析与论证,预测长江流域未来洪水年份、连续性、分布区域和洪水量级,并给出相似洪水年份。综合预报成果为:(1)预测2018年长江中下游发生大洪水,赣江、鄂西、长江中下游鄂皖将发生洪水,九江段洪水风险较高;预测2019年长江发生大洪水,长江中下游、太湖流域发生大水的概率较高。(2)预测2018年长江下游大通站流量为72 000 m^3/s,相似年为1999年;预测2019年长江下游大通站流量为72 000 m^3/s,相似年为1995年。研究成果可以为长江流域水文情势分析和大洪水预测提供可行方法。Aiming at the forecast of big-flood in the Yangtze River Basin,while taking enhancing the reliability of the forecast and reducing the misforecast as the study objective,the relevant predictions are made with ternary and pentanary commensurability models in accordance with the method of commensurability theory under the comprehensive consideration of astronomical factors,climate characteristics,natural geographic feature,etc. on the basis of long-term historical big-flood data in the Yangtze River Basin,and then a mutual verification is made on the achievements concerned. Furthermore,combined with the laws of the activities of the astronomical factors of sunspot,lunar declination angle,etc.,the relevant analysis and demonstration are carried out for predicting the future flood years,continuities,distribution areas and flood magnitudes,while the years of similar flood are given out as well. The result of the comprehensive forecast is as the follows：（ 1） it is predicted that big-flood is to occur along the mid-lower reach of the Yangtze River along with Ganjiang River flood,flood in the West Hubei,floods in Hubei and Anhui along the mid-lower reach of the Yangtze River,moreover,the flood risk is higher in the Jiujiang Section in 2018,while it is predicted that big-flood is to occur from the Yangtze River with the higher flood probabilities of both the mid-lower reach of the Yangtze River and Taihu Basin;（ 2） it is predicted that the flow-rate at Datong Station of the Lower Yangtze River is to be 72 000 m^3/s in 2018 and its similar year is 1999,while it is predicted that the flow-rate at Datong Station of the Lower Yangtze River is to be 72 000 m^3/s in 2019 and its similar year is 1995. The study result can provide a feasible method for analyzing the hydrological regime of the Yangtze River Basin and predicting the big-flood to occur therein.

关 键 词：长江流域 连续大洪水年 可公度 周期性 天文因素 防洪安全 流域水文气候变化 水文循环系统 

分 类 号：TV122[水利工程—水文学及水资源]