跨界河流安全的风险因子识别及风险控制研究  

Study on risk factor identification and risk control of transboundary river security

作　　者：田英[1] 姜蓓蕾[2] 黄火键 沈福新[1] TIAN Ying;JIANG Beilei;HUANG Huojian;SHEN Fuxin(, General Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Planning and Design, Ministry of Water Resources, Beijing 100120, China;, State Key Laboratory of Hydrology￣Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute,Nanjing 210029, Jiangsu, China)

机构地区：[1]水利部水利水电规划设计总院,北京100120 [2]南京水利科学研究院水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京210029

出　　处：《水利水电技术》2018年第5期9-15,共7页Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering

基　　金："十一五"国家科技支撑计划重点项目(2008BAB42B00)

摘　　要：为实现跨界河流地区国家边境安全、经济社会可持续发展、水生态环境持续良好、水资源可持续利用,基于跨界河流的特点,针对目前我国跨界河流安全研究偏少、风险影响因素缺乏系统分析等问题,综合采用专家调查法、幕景分析法、故障树分析等方法,首次识别并结构化分析了影响跨界河流安全的水文、工程、政治外交、经济社会、法律及其他方面的六类风险因子。在此基础上以提高风险可接受度为目的,研究提出了跨界河流安全风险类型、风险控制总体思路策略以及风险控制方法措施。在跨界河流安全风险识别的基础上,应针对其中的可控风险,从工程措施和非工程措施方面实施风险控制。研究成果为我国跨界河流安全风险分析提供技术支撑并已成功应用于实际工作,对制定跨界河流安全保障总体思路和对策措施具有重要作用。In order to achieve national border security,sustainable socio-economic development,continuous healthy water ecoenvironment and sustainable water resources utilization in those regions with transboundary rivers,6 categories of risk factors in the aspects of hydrology,engineering,political diplomacy,economy and society,legal and the other risk factors are identified and structurizedly analyzed for the first time with the methods of experts investigation,scenario analysis and fault tree,etc.,for the problems,such as less studies on the security of transboundary rivers,insufficient systematical analysis on the relevant risk impact factors,etc.,at present in China in accordance with the characteristics of transboundary rivers. On the basis of this,the risk categories,the general idea and strategy for the risk control and the methods and measures related to the risk control are proposed herein for the security of transboundary rivers to enhance the relevant risk acceptability as the target. Based on the identification of transboundary river securities risks,risks control should be carried out in terms of engineering measures and non engineering measures for controllable risks. The study result not only provides the technical support for the risk analysis of the security of transboundary rivers in China,but also has been successfully applied to the actual practices concerned,thus has an important role on making the general idea and countermeasures for the security of transboundary rivers.

关 键 词：跨界河流 安全 风险因子识别 风险控制 国际河流 生态安全 经济安全 国家水安全 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]